While the United States recovers humanitarian assistance in Southeast Asia, its Rival China can see the opportunity to expand its influence in a region where it has directed billions of dollars in investment and aid, According to analysts.
In just over three weeks since the inauguration of US President Donald Trump, Washington has frozen almost all foreign aid and moved to effectively abolish the American International Development Agency (USAID), a source of long power date in the region.
USAID, the largest disadvantage of American foreign aid, spent $ 860 million in Southeast Asia only last year, funding projects on everything, from HIV treatment to preserving biodiversity and strengthening local governance.
Many projects, which take place mainly through subsidies to local NGOs, face an uncertain future while the Trump administration withdraws the United States from the world scene as part of its “America First” program.
For Beijing, the circumstances offer an ideal opportunity for him to intervene, said Yanzhong Huang, a principal researcher from Global Health to the Council of Foreign Relations.
“The suspension of health, education and humanitarian programs – key pillars of the American soft power – can create voids that China can fill,” Huang told Al Jazeera.
“This strategic retirement could strengthen Beijing’s influence in the region, especially among the current beneficiaries of American aid such as Indonesia, the Philippines, Myanmar and Cambodia.”
While the Trump administration made the headlines with its movements in Gut Usaid last week, Beijing made the headlines by intervening with $ 4.4 million to finance a casualness project in Cambodia which had been left in the lurch by Washington.
Heng Ratana, head of Cambodia Mine Action Center, told Khmer Times that Chinese aid would help his organization to generate more than 3,400 hectares (8,400 acres) of land filled with land mines and unexplored ammunition.
Chinese embassies in the United States, Cambodia and Thailand have not responded to requests for comments from Al Jazeera.
Joshua Kurlantzick, a senior member for Southeast Asia and South Asia in the foreign relations council, said that the disappearance of the USAID comes when American influence in the region is ending in general and that China increases its public diplomacy.
The leaders of Southeast Asia are concerned with “chaotic politics” in the United States, Kurlantzick told Al Jazeera, especially in countries like Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand, where the United States devote significant aid and security aid.
“Beijing already portrays the United States as indifferent and unable to lead the region or around the world and I expect Beijing to increase its aid and its investment now in many parts of the developing world,” said declared Kurlantzick to Al Jazeera.
Although the future of many USAID programs in the region is not clear, some analysts believe that China is likely to leave projects with a more political or ideological accent for other partners in the region, such as the ‘European Union, Australia, Japan or Asian Development Project, a regional Development Bank based in Manila.
“The international Aid or International Development Program of China is quite important. But it turns out that it is very different from what USAID does insofar as the latter seems to devote a lot of resources to initiatives based on ideology, for democracy, for LGBTQ, for diversity, for inclusiveness , for climate change, “John Gong, one professor of economics at the University of International Affairs and the Economy of Beijing told Al Jazeera.
“That China will enter the vacant vacant by the United States, I am very skeptical. We are talking about different things here. And in addition, I do not think that the Chinese government is eager to compete with Washington on this front, “said Gong.
Foreign Aid of China has been strongly adapted to infrastructure, as having it in the Belt and Road (BRI) initiative, the Beijing Infrastructure Investment Project estimated at more than one Billion de Dollars.
Other projects, such as his hospital, Peace Ark, have provided medical assistance.
Almost all foreign aid from China to Southeast Asia – some 85% – contracted the form of non -concessional loans by emphasizing energy and transport, according to Grace Stanhope, associate of research At the Indo-Pacific Development Center for Indo-Pacific Indo-Pacific.
Beijing’s approach to infrastructure has made a visible presence in the region, although not always popular, stanhope told Al Jazeera, due to delays and “eruption” budgets for projects such as railway link From the east coast to Malaysia and Jakarta -Bandung Rail at high speed in Indonesia.
Certain criticisms have referred to these projects and others as a form of diplomacy of “debt trap” intended to reproduce dependence on China, denied Beijing.
In a survey carried out by the Iseas Yusof-Ishak Institute based in Singapore last year, 59.5% of respondents in 10 countries in Southeast Asian chose China as the most influential economic power in the region .
However, a little more than half expressed mistrust of China, 45.5% fearing that China would threaten their country economically or militarily. Japan was considered the major “most reliable” power, followed by the United States and the EU.
Although strongly focused on infrastructure, China slowly tried to move its assistance model towards more “sweet” aid such as public health, agriculture and digitization, said Joanne Lin, senior member of the center D ‘ASEAN ISET-ISET studies of ISEAS YUSOF-Estim Singapore.
“The extent of the aid of China will of course depend on the economic capacity of China because it is faced with constraints such as its slowed growth and its commercial tensions with Washington, which could limit its ability to replace the Help in the United States, “Lin told Al Jazeera.
Lin said that the countries of Southeast Asia prefer a “diverse approach” with foreign aid and development aid which does not depend on a single donor-whether the United States or the China.
Despite its very publicized presence in Southeast Asia, China has reduced its development aid in the region in recent years.
While China was the best donor in the region from 2015 to 2019, he has since slipped to fourth place, according to the Lowy Institute.
Funding was also dried up, going from $ 10 billion in 2017 to $ 3 billion in 2022, according to the reflection group.
China is confronted with its own problems at home, in particular the slowdown in economic growth and high unemployment for young people, which could limit the accent on affairs abroad, said Steve Balla, associate professor of science science international policies and affairs at George Washington University.
“Domestic problems can be used to limit [Chinese President Xi Jinping’s] Watch out for international affairs. Problems with the belt and the road can limit the regime options to find out how to enter the spaces left by the United States, “Balla told Al Jazeera.
Bethany Allen, head of the investigative program and analysis in China at Australian Strategic Policy Institute, expressed a similar feeling.
“China is already capitalizing on the disengagement of the United States in the first Trump era by deepening its economic, diplomatic and cultural influence in Southeast Asia. Initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, Confucius and the cooperation mechanism of Lencang-Mekong are tools to expand the soft power, “said Allen in Al Jazeera, referring to a global program to promote the study of the language and Chinese culture, and a forum to promote cooperation between China and the Mekong sub-region.
“However, the drop in economic growth in China means slowing the BRI, which leads to the country’s soft power project could be less aggressive than in the past decade. Concerns of large -scale debt and decline against Chinese influence [in Malaysia and Indonesia] Also limit his call, ”she said.
