Competition on the obesity drug market should be intensified, with 23 new anti-obeessity treatments which should receive approval on the main markets by 2031. This influx of therapies could challenge the manufacturer of Danish drugs Novo Nordk and the American pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly, which regulates appetite and space in the blood of GLP-1. Wegovy (Semaglutide) by Novo Nordisk and Zepbound (Tirzepatide) by Eli Lilly are currently leading the market, which stimulates strong sales growth.
Now, small biotechnology companies and established pharmaceutical companies develop alternative mechanisms, more sustainable formulations and oral drugs to expand patient access. “The pipeline of obesity drugs is increasing and many new therapies should reach the market over the next decade,” said Costanza Alciati, pharmaceutical analyst at Globaldata, an analysis and data council company. “This will offer more patient treatment options, provided that access problems are resolved.”
Obesity rates continue to increase worldwide, with GlobalData providing for an annual increase of 0.7% of the prevalence in seven major markets until 2031. Although lifestyle interventions remain the first line of defense, pharmacotherapy is increasingly prescribed alongside the diet and the exercise. As a result, sales of obesity medication could drop from $ 37.2 billion in 2023 to 173.5 billion dollars by 2031.
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly currently control 99% of the market, but their domination can weaken while new entrants introduce alternative therapies. GlobalData provides that their combined market share could fall to 78% by 2030, with more than 300 agonists of the GLP-1 receptors in development. Wegovy is available in the United States, Denmark, Norway, Norway, Germany and the United Kingdom, with launches in Japan and other European markets expected in 2024. Zepbound, which received approval from the United States in FDA in November 2023, is planned for broader global expansion this year, with expected approvals in Europe, Canada and parts of Asia.
“Novo Nordisk has been looking for obesity treatments for 25 years. Today, only two companies – Nordisk and Eli Lilly – have anti -obesity products on the market, but more companies will enter space. This has previously occurred in the diabetes market, where we sometimes had many competitors and, at other times, less. In the end, this comes back to innovation, “said Camilla Sylvest, executive vice-president, commercial strategy and business affairs of Novo Nordisk.
“Despite the efforts to scal up production, demand always exceeds supply. For the future, we expect the market to evolve in different segments: high efficiency treatments for significant weight loss, oral therapies focused on convenience and options sensitive to prices for wider accessibility. We aim to compete in all these segments with a strong obesity wallet, ”she added.
The American Biotechnology Company Viking Therapeutics is developing VK-2735, a double agonist in GLP-1 / GIP receivers in phase II tests. If it is approved, it could become the first oral obesity drug GLP-1 by 2028, with projected sales of $ 2 billion by 2030. Similarly, Altimune increases the PEMVIDUDITIDE, now in phase II tests for obesity and steatohepatitis with metabolic dysfunction (Mash). Should be launched in 2027, it could generate $ 1.2 billion in sales by 2030. The American-China Biotechnological Company Therapeutics works on GSBR-1290, an Oral GLP-1 candidate targeting obesity and type 2 diabetes, is expected to arrive on the market by 2028 with $ 1.2 billion of projected income.
“These small actors may not have the same scale as Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, but their approaches to weight loss treatment could establish them as important competitors during the next decade,” said Jasper Morley, pharmaceutical analyst at Globaldata.
The American pharmaceutical company Amgen also develops maritide (Maridebart Cafraglutide), which has shown up to 20% weight loss in clinical trials. Unlike weekly GLP-1 injections, maritid could be administered monthly, improving membership.
The Survodutide of Boehringer Ingelheim (Glucagon / GLP-1) emerges like another strong competitor. According to Iqvia Healthcare, this is the “first serious competitor” outside the Duopolis of Novo Nordisk-Lilly. In addition, the Indian pharmaceutical company Mankind Pharma pursues a GPR119 oral-target drug for obesity. “We have seen encouraging phase I results and recently launched phase II tests in Australia,” said Arjun Juneja, COO of Mankind Pharma.
