No later than January, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia categorically rejected the idea of a temporary cease-fire in Ukraine.
But after a month in which President Trump transformed the American foreign policy on his head and the Russian forces progressed in a key battle, the Kremlin now seems at least eager to entertain the 30-day cease-fire proposal made by Ukraine and the United States on Tuesday.
Dmitri S. Peskov, Mr. Putin’s spokesperson, told journalists on Wednesday that the Kremlin “thoroughly studied” Tuesday talks between the United States and Ukraine, and their call for a month.
He said he expected the United States to inform Russia in the coming days of “the details of the negotiations that have taken place and the understanding that has been reached”. He raised the possibility of another telephone call between Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump, reporting that the Kremlin considered the cease-fire proposal as part of a wider wave of diplomacy.
Late Wednesday, Mr. Putin sought to show that he controlled events by bringing military fatigue and organizing a television meeting with his senior military officials responsible for pushing Ukraine outside the Kursk Russia region, where Russia has made progress in recent weeks. He ordered his troops to defeat Ukraine in the region “as soon as possible”, a decision which, in the event of success, would refuse to Ukraine a lever point in any negotiation with Russia.
Mr. Putin saw a dizzying overthrow in his geopolitical fortune in the last month while Mr. Trump realized American foreign policy in favor of Russia, antagonized the American allies and excorored President Volodymyr Zelensky, from Ukraine to the White House.
But the emergence of a joint cease-fire proposal from the United States and Ukraine complicates things for Mr. Putin. He deepens the tension between his desires for a large -scale victory in Ukraine and for close links with Mr. Trump.
While Mr. Trump says that he wants to end the war as soon as possible, Mr. Putin noted that he will not stop fighting until he extracts major western concessions and kyiv, including a commitment that Ukraine will not join NATO and that the Alliance will reduce its presence in central and eastern Europe.
On January 20, when he congratulated Mr. Trump for his inauguration, Mr. Putin clearly indicated that the objective of everything Ukrainian talks should “not be a cease-fire, not a kind of respite”. Russia, he said, asked “a long-term peace based on respect for the legitimate interests of all, all the nations that live in this region”.
Analysts claim that Mr. Putin’s opposition to a temporary cease-fire came from the simple calculation that with the Russian forces which gain on the battlefield, Moscow would give up its lever effect by stopping the fights without winning concessions.
But a telephone call of February 12 between Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump, and the subsequent alignment of the White House with Russia to the United Nations and elsewhere, may have affected Mr. Putin’s calculation by making him more eager to remain on the good side of Mr. Trump, according to analysts.
This sets up a delicate balance for the Kremlin.
ILYA GRASHCHENKOV, political analyst in Moscow, said that the Kremlin could be tempted to accept a truce which would be “tactically unfavorable but strategically favorable” in order to “show that it is a peaceful”.
While the Russians were not present during Tuesday talks in Djeddah, Saudi Arabia, the Trump administration maintained its commitment with the Kremlin. John Ratcliffe, Director of the CIA, spoke to his Russian counterpart, Sergei Jolyshkin on Tuesday, the Russian foreign intelligence agency announced on Wednesday.
Steve Witkoff, Mr. Trump’s envoy who met Mr. Putin for several hours last month, plans to return to Russia in the coming days, according to two people familiar with the issue, who asked for anonymity to discuss internal plans. Trump said on Tuesday that he was thinking that he would speak with Mr. Putin this week, and he told journalists in the White House on Wednesday that his negotiators were on the way.
“People are going to Russia right now as we are talking about,” Trump said at a meeting with the Irish Prime Minister. “And I hope we can get a ceasefire from Russia.”
In a sign of the continuous charm offensive of Moscow directed against the Trump camp, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs published on Wednesday a 90 -minute interview that the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey V. Lavrov, gave three American video bloggers, including the former personality of Fox News Andrew Napolitano.
Mr. Lavrov, speaking English, praised the Trump administration for reversing the “Christian values” of the Democrats and declared that Russia was ready for the “normal relations” that the United States offered.
“It is certainly not impossible for the Russians to accept this,” said Samuel Charap, Russian analyst at the Rand Corporation, about the 30 -day offer. “Not because they want an unconditional and temporary ceasefire, but because they now have an interest in relations with Washington.”
Mr. Putin’s calculation could also be affected by Russia’s progress in recent days by pushing Ukrainian troops from Kursk, the Russian border region where Ukraine occupied several hundred squares of territory in a surprise incursion last August.
Mr. Zelensky said he was planning to use this land as a negotiation program during future talks, but the Kremlin reported that it would refuse to negotiate as long as Ukraine held the territory.
With the Kursk region, mainly back in Russian hands, Mr. Putin no longer risks losing his face by accepting a ceasefire that would leave Ukraine to control a Russian territory area, said Sergei Markov, pro-Kremlin political analyst in Moscow.
Another incitement to agree, said Markov, was to ensure that Russia “does not resemble a war maniac” in the eyes of non -Western countries which have avoided imposing sanctions in Moscow. But, he said, he expected that Mr. Putin insists on the prerequisites, as a stop of weapons supplies in Ukraine for the duration of the ceasefire.
“Russia will most likely say:” Yes, but – “,” said Markov in a telephone interview.
On Wednesday, Russian pro-war bloggers did not show much enthusiasm for a cease-fire. Some of them have expressed their concern that a truce could possibly lead to a broader agreement with the United States which, in its opinion, would betray the original objectives of the war and end up leading to a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine.
A blogger, who bears the name of Alex Parker, argued A message Wednesday That a peace agreement would allow Ukraine to “descend easily and prepare for the next round”.
Ivan Nechepurenko contributed the reports.
