As Baltic states break from Russian grid, they brace for retaliation

The Baltic countries of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are preparing to compete for sabotage and possible cyber attacks this weekend while they end their long-awaited decoupling of the Russian electricity network.

The Baltic States disconnected from the “Brell” energy network controlled by Moscow on Saturday, and should complete their connection with the European electricity system on Sunday.

The operators of the Baltic Network said on Saturday morning that the decoupling had succeeded, and the Minister of Energy Lithuania, Zygiantas Vaicinas, told a press conference: “The Baltic Energy System is finally in our hands – We sums in control “, in comments Reported by the Lithuanian diffuser, LRT.

Decoupling is considered to be a crucial means of ensuring independence and safety of energy, and to dismantle the remains of the post-Soviet era which attached the Baltic States to Russia.

Gevärt, chief of cybersecurity in Estonia, told CNBC that the country worked closely with its neighbors in the field of cybersecurity to prepare potential risk scenarios when decoupling takes place.

“The transition has been well planned and the experts assess the probability of serious problems as low. However, Russia can try to exploit this period to create uncertainty,” he said in comments sent by email THURSDAY.

“Thanks to strong national and international cooperation, Estonia is well prepared even for the worst scenarios-although this does not mean that such threats will materialize,” he added.

The question of whether Russia will leave the capital disconnection of the Balts de Brell – acronymous with Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania which refers to their 2001 agreement to synchronize their electrical networks – Seeing himself unanswered.

But the potential for reprisals of Russia is taken seriously by the Baltic energy ministries and transmission systems operators like Elering, the operator of the Estonia State Grille.

“The preparations are over, and we are ready for desynchronization,” said Kalle Kilk, Elering manager, said Thursday in a press releaseDescribing the process as a “unique enterprise in the recent history of energy, in terms of its scale and its complexity”.

“Although the major technical changes always involve certain risks, we have analyzed them thoroughly and developed appropriate action plans. With a planned transition, the average electricity consumer should not notice any change.”

“What cannot be planned a hundred percent, however, is a situation where energy is used as a weapon. So what is dangerous is not so much disconnection from Russia, because we Let’s prepare for years, but continuing to be connected to the Russian electricity system, “said Kilk.

CNBC asked the Kremlin and the Russian Ministry of Energy to comment and awaits an answer.

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania joined the European Union in 2004, indefinitely modifying the dial in the relations of nations with Russia.

Since then, states have sought to align their electricity networks with the rest of the EU. The block provided Over 1.2 billion euros ($ 1.24 billion) in grants For synchronization, which is considered a strategic priority.

The feeling of emergency around decoupling accelerated after the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022, the conflict causing fears among the other former Soviet republics – including the Balts – which they could also face to a Russian assault similar to the future.

Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia The continuous use of energy infrastructure of the Soviet era was also considered a major source of insecurity, fearing that Russia will disrupt food at will.

Baltic states are considered on the “first line” with Russia and its Belarus ally makes a target for “hybrid” threatening activities, ranging from cyber attacks to suspicious sabotage of power and communication cables under the Baltic Sea.

Cyberattacks against Estonia increased in 2022 after the Russia’s large -scale invasion in Ukraine, Auvärt in Estonia said.

“These varied DDOS focused on hacktivist [distributed denial-of-service] Attacks on more sophisticated and targeted operations against government agencies and businesses. While Estonia has become able to counter these threats, the overall risk level remains high. It is often difficult to determine whether hostile cyber-activity is linked to specific events or part of a broader strategy, “he noted.

The energy systems of the Baltic and Russia remaining linked despite the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the planned decoupling of Russia more than 30 years later is both significant and symbolic.

“The decision of the three Baltic States will be the culmination of multi -year efforts and several billion euros to delight critical energy infrastructure from the Networks of the Soviet era, which is considered a source of insecurity”, Andrius Tursa , Central and the Councilor in Eastern Europe at Risk Consultancy Teneo, said in the comments by email this week.

“The countries have stimulated the physique and cybersecurity of their energy systems in anticipation of the potential efforts of external disturbance during this highly symbolic and technically complex transition,” he noted.

The disconnection of the IPS / UPS transmission system managed by the Brell agreement took place on Saturday, from Lithuania and ending in Estonia. Baltic states will then perform frequency and tension tests during the weekend “to assess the procedural and technical measures of the Baltic States to maintain the frequency and their ability to cope with independently,” said the grid operator Unit.

The desynchronization process ends on Sunday afternoon when the Baltic States connect and synchronize their grids with the European continental network, known as the synchronous network of continental Europe or the UCT.

Latvia’s Climate and Energy Minister, Kaspars Melnis, Said There Had Already Been Attempts to Spread Misinformation About the Switchover, Stting that “in Complex Geopolical Conditions, It is True That Society is more vulnerable, and the set The project is closer, the more we encounter misleading information.

“Consequently, we urge the public to process information critically, not to fall into the fault of any emotionally charged statement, and not to share news that has not been verified,” he declared in comments Published on the website of the Latton AST Grid operator.

Synchronization with the rest of the continent was crucial for the balls, he added, and “aims to make sure that we can maintain and control the grid ourselves, ensure stability and so that we do not depend on the actions of our neighbors “.

There is palpable relief in the next synchronization between Baltic energy operators; The AST grid operator even presents a countdown to “the energy independence of the Baltic States” On his website.