Zimbabwe, President Mnangagwa, Blessed Geza and the drama of succession

A long convoy of armored tanks of rolling staff in a district of Harare aroused concerns – for a brief moment – that a military coup was underway in Zimbabwe.

“What’s going on in Zimbabwe?” A person published on social networks. Another said: “The last time happened, there was a coup.”

Government spokesperson Nick Mangwana was quick to appease public fears, explaining that the tanks were in the capital that mid-February in the context of an exercise planned to test the equipment and did not care “.

However, chatter and speculation continued, revealing a lot about the state of the country.

Before the routine military exercise, President Emmerson Mnangagwa had for the first time become president in 2017 in 2017.

The accusations aroused memories of the head of the coup which overthrew his predecessor, the long -standing leader Robert Mugabe.

He had come to power in 1980 as a revolutionary hero who finished decades of rule of the white minority. But his disappearance was announced when the veterans of the 1970s war of independence retired their support for him.

He was a veteran of the war and the main member of the Zanu-PF named Blesed Geza, also known as “Bombshell”, who launched a verbal offensive against Mnangagwa.

He got angry when some in the party began to push to change the laws of the country to allow the president to request a third term.

In a series of press conferences often charged with explanive, of the gallor voice and with a crisscrossed front, he repeatedly called on the 82 -year -old president to go or be kidnapped.

“I must apologize for having helped him into office,” said Geza at a press conference was broadcast on social networks about the president, who goes through the nickname “The Crocodile”.

“As soon as he [Mnangagwa] If the taste for power, he increased corruption, forgot the people and only remembered his family, “said the veteran of the franc war, who was then a member of the powerful central committee of Zanu-PF.

“Mnangagwa has also returned the power of the state to his wife and children. We unfortunately see the story repeating. We cannot allow this to happen.”

Zanu -PF was scandalized by his “unfair” remarks – described later as “equivalent to betrayal” – forcing the bomb to hide from where, through his representatives, he continues to mock social media, alluding to the demonstrations.

He is wanted by the police for four accusations, including the theft of vehicles, undermining the authority of the president and encouraging public violence.

Bounded Mhlanga, the journalist who interviewed Bombshell for the first time in November, has also been arrested for transmission of a message that encourages violence.

The problems began to brew on the ambitions of Mnangagwa to remain in office during the Zanu-PF rallies last year. The president is currently serving his second and last mandate, which expired in 2028.

The slogan “2030 He will always be the leader” began to be pronounced by his supporters despite the Constitution of Zimbabwe limiting the presidential conditions to two five -year terms.

They argued that he should stay in office to complete his “2030 Agenda” development program because he was doing such a good job.

A motion was then adopted unanimously at the Zanu-PF conference in December which did not explicitly speak of a third term but sought to extend the current mnangagwa mandate until 2030.

Despite recent insurance from Mnangagwa, which he intended to resign in three years, the influential Roman Catholic bishops were involved.

In a pastoral letter last week, the Zimbabwe Catholic Bishops Conference warned that the 2030 debate was a distraction of things that were really counting – business closings, high unemployment, creeping corruption and economic policies that promote the rich at the expense of ordinary Zimbabweans.

Presidential spokesperson George Charamba expressed his disappointment as to the Clerics declaration, saying to the Herald Journal managed by the State, the question was now “dead and buried”.

Nevertheless, Bombshell’s message seems to have landed. This led to a purge in the Zanu-PF, with the expulsion of Geza and some of his allies.

However, political analyst Takura Zhangazha says that Geza’s explosion is unlikely to galvanize crowds.

These days, people are less interested in these political glasses, he says, unlike the fall of Mugabe when the Zimbabweans, including the supporters of the opposition party, proved to be in mass to support the blow-thanking the soldiers and the veterans of the war.

“Even Geza’s attempt to talk about the corruption and the fate of workers – it will not make people get up, organization, mobilization. They no longer have this capacity or this interest,” he said to the BBC.

“I can promise you that there is no rehearsal of 2017 before 2028,” he said, adding that the Zimbabweans feel that they were used in the ouster of Mugabe and would not be brought back to the streets for the internal battles of Zanu-PF.

It is also because there are divisions through the political landscape, including weak opposition.

Even veterans do not represent a united front, says Mr. Zhangazha.

Geza previously expressed his support in the debate on the succession of vice-president Constantine Chiwenga, the former 68-year-old army chief, but other war veterans are known to support the 2030 agenda.

Political analyst Alexander Rusero says it is important to understand the influential role of veterans in Zimbabwe and Zanu-PF.

“They consider themselves guards, so you cannot wish their feelings,” he said to the BBC.

However, he believes that the current grievances disseminated by bombshell tastes are more caused by self-compliance than the public interest.

“They have the impression of being excluded from the cake they should otherwise appreciate,” he told the BBC.

Mr. Zhangazha agrees that those who show loyalty within the power party will likely benefit from things such as tenders, government contracts, access to housing, land and agricultural inputs such as fertilizers and seeds.

For Jameson Timba, the leader of a faction of the main opposition party, the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC), everything sums up the state of politics in Zimbabwe.

“You have a country where the economic situation is deteriorating. People can barely afford more than one meal a day,” he told the BBC.

“We have large supermarket chains that are literally close,” he said, referring to the economic problems confronted with Ok Zimbabwe, one of the largest retailers in the country which was forced to close several large branches with empty shelves in others.

Mr. Zhangazha noted that forecasts for the fragile economy seem even darker thanks to the benefits of the recent suspension of the USAID.

Timba is still recovering from a five -month stay in prison, spending most of his incarceration sitting on concrete soil, sharing a cell and toilets with 80 people.

He was arrested in June, with more than 70 others, for organizing an “illegal meeting” at his private residence when he held a barbecue to mark the international day of the African child.

His treatment – and those of his colleagues detained – reflected how the opposition policy was criminalized, he told the BBC.

“The country faces challenges. Any chief or government that is worth its salt would really require an early election, to verify and determine whether they still have the mandate of the people,” he said.

“Doing the opposite represents an essentially joke [when] You talk about extending a mandate. “”

However, there is little chance of an early vote.

For the moment, Bombshell remains in the hiding place and the elections are in the years far – but the debate on the succession will continue to cook.