Xi shows he wants to be close to Putin

Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin give the impression that they are the best friends.

XI took its place on the right of Putin, the position of an unshakable ally, while their troops walked together on the Red Square as part of the Moscow Victory Day Parade.

A few hours earlier, XI described the link between the two countries as “unbreakable” and added that Russia and China should be “steel friends”.

This is the 11th visit to Xi in Russia since he became president in 2013 and the two leaders met over 40 times.

Putin has already announced her intention to visit China in the fall and the two leaders have even, in the past, shared a rare public hug.

But there is more in this relationship that does not meet the eye.

“We see a lot of exchanges between the two men and patriotic manifestations of conviviality,” said Mathieu Boulegue, of the Center for European Policy Analysis.

“They can be friends at one end or cooperate at one end, then separate each other, and be in fact competitors in certain aspects of their relationship.

“We are seduced by symbolism. There is a lot of performance around this relationship. But it is interesting to look at the real substance.”

In truth, President XI walks a very fine line. Russia is an important partner for China, but the invasion of Putin of Ukraine has made him an international pariah in a large part of the world.

Beijing must be careful that his friendship with Moscow is no other potential partners, especially since he fights an economic war with the United States.

China has been running Europe for several months and has intensified its campaign after Donald Trump became American president.

Beijing wanted to present itself as a stable alternative global partner unlike an unpredictable white house in Washington.

There were signs earlier this week that these diplomatic openings were working.

Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, and António Costa, president of the European Council, exchanged messages on Tuesday with President XI and Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang to celebrate the 50th anniversary of bilateral relations.

The stumbling block of any potential partnership was the close relationship of Beijing with Moscow and its economic support for Russia. China has not condemned its “old friend” for the invasion and rather calls for the end of the “crisis”.

If President XI seems to be too close to Putin, it could cause friction with Europe at a time when he seeks friendship.

But the Chinese chief has another key message to send.

Trump’s first attempts to end the war in Ukraine made him boast his close personal relationship with Putin. It prompted analysts to ask if Washington was trying to make a corner between Moscow and Beijing.

XI will clearly tell Trump that it is not possible.

“Together, we must thwart all the patterns to disturb or undermine our bonds of friendship and confidence,” Xi wrote in an article signed for the Russian media.

Russian and Chinese leaders have also described Trump’s plans for an anti-missile defense shield “gold dome” in the United States as “deeply destabilizing”, and argued that it would arm the space.

The two leaders wish to present their vision of an alternative world order in the face of what they believe to be hegemony.

But Xi will be aware that although China is a superpower – the power of Russia is now limited. It is no longer an equal partnership.

The war in Ukraine weakened the economy of Russia and exhausted its arsenal and its army.

Western sanctions have also left Moscow much more dependent on Beijing for economic survival. They seriously weakened the Kremlin on the world scene.

“Russia needs China much more than the reverse is true,” said Boulegue.

Moscow will have to “suck”, he added.

Putin can look at her friend as they look at the tanks ride in the red square and they can team up when they need each other.

But behind daring statements, smiles, hand handles and occasional hug, there are potential sources of discord and disharmony that could surface in the years to come.