Since President Trump took office, promising to resume American support from Ukraine, European leaders have feared that he was unable to provide Ukraine with the weapons he needs.
So far, it seems that they were right.
The so-called coalition of the will of the European nations supporting Ukraine had difficulty bringing the equipment to its battlefields in time since Trump clearly indicated that Europe had to bear more burden on Ukraine and its own.
This is one of the reasons why the Ukrainian Parliament massively approved an agreement to give the United States a share of future income on natural resources, including minerals. Although a security guarantee, it remains open the possibility of prosecution of American weapons and other military assistance.
“This gives us hope,” said Yehor Chernev, vice-president of the Ukrainian Parliament on National Security, Defense and Intelligence Committee.
In an interview shortly after the vote, Mr. Chernev declared that the Ukrainian forces operated low on long -range missiles, artillery and, above all, ballistic air defense systems – the majority of which are manufactured in the United States, according to an analysis of the Kiel Institute for the Global Economy.
In summer, military aid approved under the Biden administration will run out and Trump seems reluctant to renew it.
“He told me that he needed more weapons, but he said that for three years,” Trump said after meeting President Volodymyr Zelensky from Ukraine last month in Rome. (The Trump administration allowed Ukraine to buy small dollar weapons directly from American manufacturers, but not with the help of the US government.)
Allies in Europe have collectively gave about half of the $ 130 billion in military support provided for Ukraine since Russia invaded in 2022. The United States sent the rest.
While European leaders and investors seem ready to inject more money into the production of weapons, industry leaders and experts predict that it will take a decade to obtain mounting lines.
“Europe is trying to replace the help we have lost from the United States, but unfortunately, they do not have the capacity to do so,” said Mr. Chernev. “It takes time between decision and actual assistance.”
Although Mr. Trump has shown more alignment with Ukraine in recent days, notably Thursday, threatening sanctions against Russia if she refused to accept a prolonged cease-fire, her wider disdain around 80 years of American protections for Europe has prompted allied countries to rethink their security.
The allies fear that Mr. Trump will draw Russian deterrents, such as American troops and the American nuclear umbrella from Europe. Focusing on their own protection eats in what other European countries could have given to Ukraine.
“They strike the double problem of having to rearrange and provide Ukraine, and industrial capacity is not large enough to make both,” said Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, an analysis group affiliated to the British army.
He declared that Europe could fill most of what the United States had provided in arms to Ukraine, “in the long term, if he has the will, and I am not sure he has the will.”
And for now? “No. Not in the short term,” said Savill.
Weapons are not only a question of life and death for the soldiers of Ukraine. Without adequate supplies, Ukraine could lose the territory if it is forced to withdraw. The ceasefire agreement that Trump tries to broker would freeze the conflict in place. This would allow Russia to keep the ground it has captured in the meantime.
Admittedly, the flow of arms to Ukraine from Europe will continue even if American deliveries dry up. Germany recently sent Ukraine more than 60 shields resistant to mine, around 50,000 artillery balls and air defense ammunition, including an IRIS-T interceptor which can eliminate cruise missiles. Certain drones that Great Britain and Norway announced, announced last month as part of a security package of $ 600 million, have since arrived in Ukraine. Estonia sends 10,000 artillery shells.
But many of the European military assistance undertook last month at NATO headquarters, commitments for the production or purchase of weapons in the coming years, not immediately. Ukraine may need American weapons for a while.
Part of the Europe’s financial support will help the defense industry of Ukraine. Mr. Chernev said that around 800 companies in Ukraine produce weapons. He estimated that Ukraine could produce weapons of $ 35 billion in the coming years, but that it required at least $ 14 billion invested from allies to get there. SATURDAY, Denmark announced that it would send around $ 930 million in frozen Russian assets to support the defense industry of Ukraine in the name of a European Union fund.
Ukraine already produces millions of drones each year, including cheap suicide bomber to save its supply of artillery shells, said Savill. Likewise, a Western intelligence official who closely monitors war said that the forces of Ukraine have improved to ration its Patriot air defense missiles, using less expensive interceptors to withdraw smaller threats.
“They would like more cruise missiles and more ballistic missiles and a variety of other weapons,” said Savill, “but for the moment, they will have to fill the gap.”
