The quarter -final of the Champions League was simply supposed to serve as teasers for next week’s melodrama.
They said sport was on their knees after Sunday’s draw in the Manchester derby in the middle of a fairly unprecedented Premier League season, but the European club competition provided a timely reminder that it is not so bad after all.
With Jeopardy Rife, the continent’s elite delivered (well, some of them did it) under the brightest lights. There were special collective projections worthy of renowned X.
There is a range for twists and turns in the legs back, but the action of Tuesday and Wednesday has greatly contributed to determine the Final Four. At the back of the results of the first leg, here is how Opta Evaluates the chances of each remaining team to win the 2024/25 Champions League on the basis of 10,000 simulations managed by computer.
|
Row |
Team |
Probability of reaching the semi-finals (%) |
The probability of reaching the final (%) |
Probability of winning the Champions League (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 and 1 |
Arsenal |
95.7 |
52.9 |
27.8 |
|
2 |
Barcelona |
99.5 |
51.7 |
25.9 |
|
3 and 3 |
PSG |
91.5 |
42.9 |
21.9 |
|
4 |
Between |
82.7 |
41.5 |
19.8 |
|
5 |
Bayern Munich |
17.3 |
6.7 |
3 |
|
6. |
real Madrid |
4.3 |
2 |
0.9 |
|
7 |
Aston Villa |
8.5 |
2.2 |
0.8 |
|
8 |
Borussia Dortmund |
0.5 |
0.1 |
0 |
Barcelona Wednesday evening, all reserved their place in the semi-finals when they won a 4-0 victory over Borussia Dortmund, but Liga leaders are no longer Opta Favorites to hoist the trophy at altitude in Munich.
ArsenalThe European Pedigree is minimal, but Mikel Arteta’s team has gone through a new border by beating Real Madrid 3-0 in the Emirates. The 15 winners were amazed by a pair of superb free kicks Declan Rice who will find themselves on the goals of all time for the years to come. Mikel Merino’s strike shortly after the Masterclass of the dead ball of the midfield may have put the tie beyond the men of Carlo Ancelotti.
Barça is the most likely semi-finalists, with their chances of reaching the last four that 99.5% compared to the 95.7% arsenal. However, artillerymen are more likely to reach the final (52.9% to 51.7%) and win everything (27.8% to 25.9%). The two parties could compete at the Allianz Arena in a rehearsal of the 2006 final.
The Madrid disaster in the second half in northern London leaves them with only 4.3% chance of progressing and 0.9% chance of winning the European title number 16. Interesting, their chances of lifting the trophy are slightly better than those of Aston Villa (0.8%), despite the villans who have a better chance of overthrowing their first leg deficit. Opta Evaluates the probability of a reversal in the second stage in the West Midlands next Tuesday at 8.5%.
Paris Saint-Germain On Wednesday, produced another scintillating screen with the English opposition, and they run Barcelona closed for the most majestic attack outfit that remains in the competition. The bets never played with such a desire and such a synergy. They are the third favorites to win the Champions League, the supercomputer estimated their chances at 21.9%.
BetweenIn the meantime, go slightly under the radar. Simone Inzaghi’s team is aging, but they are a brilliant cup team that was beaten finalists two years ago. The Nerazzurri combine the vintage Italian defense with “relationist” principles in possession, which help them to methodically overwhelm adversaries.
Their 2-1 victory in Bayern Munich on Tuesday leaves them 82.7% chance of making the semi-finals, but they are the least likely of their four winners in the first stage to win the competition (19.8% of chance). Do not sleep on it.
