When US vice-president JD Vance was asked about the war in Ukraine at a foreign policy for Washington last week, diplomats expected Maga’s criticism in kyiv and veiled sympathy for Russia.
Instead, they heard something quite different. Vance said about a set of Russian proposals to end the conflict: “We think they are asking too much.”
The participants were surprised. Vance was one of the main protagonists of the now sadly famous Oval Office force test in February, when he disturbed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and accused him of not having shown enough gratitude to the United States for his support – a scene that seemed to predict a complete break in relations between Kyiv and Washington.
Vance’s comments were part of a notable change by the Trump administration. US officials seem to be more and more impatient with Vladimir Putin, while suspicion grow up that the Russian chief, rather than Zelenskyy, could be the greatest obstacle to peace.
“The Americans had this simplistic idea – charting Russia, put pressure on Zelenskyy, and we will get an agreement,” said Wolfgang Ischinger, the former German ambassador to the United States to whom Vance made his comment on last week’s forum. “It turned out that the simple charming Russia is not enough.”
International efforts to end the war have intensified in recent days. At Putin’s suggestion, Russia and Ukraine should hold direct talks in Türkiye on Thursday – although it is not clear if the Russian chief will attend in person.
On Tuesday, a White House official said that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump’s special envoys, Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg, will participate.
But Trump’s most desired objective – a ceasefire that could lead to peace negotiations and at the end of the war – has so far escaped him. Putin rejected international calls to stop fighting, despite threats from Western powers – including the United States – new difficult sanctions.
The apparent intransigence of Russia is irritating for Trump, say the observers. “You hear the frustration [his] Communication, “said Michael McFaul, a former American ambassador to Russia.” He perhaps understands that he abandoned too much and did not get anything in return. “”
Indeed, under one of the sets of proposals broadcast by the United States last month to end the war, Washington expressed its will to recognize the reign of Russia on Crimea – a concession that has enraged Ukraine and the EU, but was rejected by Putin.
Trump’s social media publications reflect its apparent impatience. At the end of April, after Russia pulled missiles from Civil Zones from Ukraine, he said that he thought that the Kremlin “was simply tapping me” and threatened to impose secondary and banking sanctions in Moscow.
“Trump concludes that Putin is not a friend of the United States,” said Bill Taylor, who was an American ambassador to Ukraine from 2006 to 2009. “There is recognition that [he] should not trust. . . that he does not negotiate seriously. »»
It becomes more and more difficult to blame Ukrainians for continuous fighting. In recent weeks, Zelenskyy has done everything possible to present itself as a cooperative partner, supporting American requests for a cease-fire. On Sunday, he accepted Putin’s proposal for direct talks in Türkiye after Trump urged him to accept it.
Relations between kyiv and Washington have rebounded since the oval spit of February in part thanks to the mineral agreement which opens a path to joint investments in the critical resources of Ukraine by the two countries.
Ukrainian officials say that the agreement makes it more likely that the United States will continue to support the defense of Ukraine. “Now Trump has the skin in the game,” said one.
But it is not clear if Trump really moved his sympathies to Ukraine – or is ready to punish Russia for his recalcitrance.
While most Western leaders, and Kellogg, Ukraine’s special envoy, criticized Putin’s offer from direct talks, saying that there should be a ceasefire, Trump praised the Gambit of the Russian leader, welcoming a “potentially formal day for Russia and Ukraine”.
“Trump definitively sees that Putin does not play the ball,” said Eric Green, former assistant to President Joe Biden to the National Security Council who is now a non -resident academic at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Think Tank. “But I am not convinced that the consequence of this will be a significant pressure on Putin.”
Ischinger said he was “delighted” that Vance had changed on Russia and that American and European positions on the war in Ukraine “convergent”. But the former German ambassador to the United States added that the vice-president “did not take the next logical step, which would have been to say that we must now really turn the screws on Russia”.
However, other American politicians are eager to become hard with Moscow. Senator Lindsey Graham, an ally of Trump, said that he had bipartite support for a bill that would apply “crushing” sanctions against Russia, including a price of 500% on imports from countries that buy its oil and its gas, if Putin does not start from serious negotiations to end the war.
The bill was supported by 72 senators – a sign that support for Ukraine remains strong in Capitol Hill.
“These sanctions represent the point of view of the Senate that we see the main bad guy being Russia,” Graham told journalists at the end of last month. Putin, he added, “would make a huge mistake to try to play Trump.”
Experts claim that Russia is decreasing on the American president who loses patience with the peace process. “Putin plays a long match and thinks he has time,” said McFaul. “He calculates that Trump will lose his interest and that the Americans will reduce military assistance, and this will make the Ukrainian army weak,” said the former American ambassador to Russia.
Others believe that the danger that the American president abandoning Ukraine has decreased in recent weeks.
Thomas Graham, a distinguished member of the Council for Foreign Relations and former Senior Director of Russia to the staff of the National Security Council, said that Trump would find it difficult to achieve one of his main objectives – a resetting of relations with Russia – without first solving the problem of Ukraine.
“There is too much at stake,” he said. “Yes, he could still move away from Ukraine – but if he did it, it would look too much like failure.”
Additional reports from Christopher Miller in Kyiv
