Washington, DC – Scenes of jubilation and reunion in tears take place through the Gaza Strip, while hundreds of thousands of displaced people return home in the north of the territory.
A fragile ceasefire after 15 months of war in Gaza made the return possible. But while defenders of rights greet a rare case of reverse displacement in Palestinian history, the President of the United States, Donald Trump, called for the transfer of the population of Gaza to Egypt and Jordan.
“You are probably talking about a million and a half people,” Trump told journalists. “We clean it up and say,” You know, it’s over. »»
Analysts say that Trump’s proposal would be equivalent to ethnic cleaning, but it is unlikely to materialize, given the geopolitical realities of the region.
Yousef Munayyer, head of the Palestine / Israel program at the Arab center Washington DC, said that Trump’s “scandalous” declaration should be sentenced to having violated all standards and basic rights.
However, he added that it should also be taken with a degree of skepticism.
“Trump says all kinds of things,” said Munayyer. “Sometimes these are things he means. Sometimes these are things that he does not mean. Sometimes these are things he heard in a conversation he had five minutes ago. Sometimes these are things he thinks he heard but misunderstood. »»
Munayyer said that the idea of ethnically from Gaza is not new and that it has been circulating since the war broke out in October 2023.
But to speak of moving the Palestinians to Egypt, the only Arab country that borders the territory, was quickly closed by Cairo. Jordan, which is next to the occupied West Bank, has also rejected the mass movement.
The two countries reiterated their positions after Trump’s recent comments.
“This is not just what these countries think of Palestine or what they think of the Israeli-Palestinian issue,” said Munayyer.
“It is also their own national security problems – existential national security problems, which cannot really be minimized in this discussion.”
Egypt and Jordan say no
On Wednesday, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sissi forcefully stressed that Egypt would not participate in any campaign to withdraw the Palestinians from Gaza, citing the “injustice” of the displacement as well as Egyptian security.
“I want to assure the Egyptian people that leniency or allow violations of Egyptian national security will not be authorized,” he said.
El-Sissi added that, if he planned to accept the displacement of the Palestinians, the Egyptian people would go on the street to warn them against this decision.
“I say clearly: the displacement of the Palestinian people of their land is an injustice in which we will not participate,” he said.
Jordan echoed this position, the Minister of Foreign Affairs Ayman Safadi saying that the position of the Kingdom of Hashemite is “irreversible and unchanged”.
While Trump has acquired a reputation for other reinforcement countries, analysts say that Egypt and Jordan have crucial interests that would accept the displaced people from Gaza a non-starter.
The two governments fear a long way of their populations, who would consider any role in ethnic cleaning as a betrayal of the Palestinian cause, which remains a central problem in the region.
In addition, the influx of hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians, including thousands of sustainable fighters by the battle, could destabilize political, economic and security structures in Egypt and Jordan, experts in Al Jazeera said.
Nancy Okail, president of the Center for International Policy, a reflection group based in the United States, said that Trump’s comments do not seem to be based on a real strategy.
“The Egyptian government, and in particular President El-Sissi, have been very clear and very firm that it is a non-GO; It’s a red line, “said Okail. “There is no way to be accepted.”
She added that Trump, a self-proclaimed deal, could try to use a carrot and stick approach to convince Egypt to accept Gaza Palestinians, but El-Sissi would not even say the idea.
“First of all, it is a problem of capacity. It is also a problem of legitimacy. And above all, it is a direct threat to the stability of the country, “said Okail.
Annelle Sheline, a researcher at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said that Jordan is faced with similar problems with mass movement.
While people “should be concerned” about Trump’s proposal, Sheline said that the American president “may not have fully examined the repercussions” of this policy for Jordan and the whole region.
“It’s so exasperated because I hear this so often, people say:” Why don’t other countries take them, or why don’t they just start? ” Well, why is Israel stop trying to kill them? This is the real question, ”said Sheline to Al Jazeera.
Trump Declaration
The repercussions started on Saturday when Trump amazed the Middle East with an explicit call to transfer the population of Gaza out of the devastated band.
“I would like Egypt to take people, and I would like Jordan to take people,” said Trump.
He justified his suggestion by describing the devastation in Gaza, after more than a year of Israeli bombing constantly.
“It is literally a demolition site at the moment. Almost everything is demolished and people die there, “said Trump. “So, I prefer to get involved in some of the Arab nations and build housing in a different place, where they can perhaps live in peace for a change.”
He said that the trip can be temporary or “long -term”.
Despite the backlash, Trump doubled his proposal on Monday, saying that he had spoken to El-Sissi of Egypt on this subject.
“I want him to take it [Palestinians]Said Trump. “We have helped them a lot, and I’m sure he would help us.”
Egypt is one of the main beneficiaries of American aid. But neither the White House nor the Egyptian presidency published a reading of the supposed call between Trump and El-Sissi.
We “not retained” by law
Trump’s remarks mark a reversal of the declared policy of his predecessor Joe Biden to reject the permanent withdrawal of the Palestinians from Gaza.
However, in October 2023, at the start of the war, a request for financing under Biden launched the possibility of mass movement.
A letter from the White House at the Congress suggested that the help of Israel “would support displaced civilians affected by conflict, including Palestinian refugees in Gaza and West Bank” and “meet the potential needs of Gazans fleeing to neighboring countries ».
Sheline said that, in an “alternative universe” where the Arab countries could have accepted displaced Palestinians, the Biden administration would have approved mass withdrawal from the Gaza population.
“International law has not retained the United States or Israel with regard to the Palestinians – really never, and especially under the previous administration,” said Sheline, who resigned from the US State Department to protest against His Gaza policy.
She stressed that American laws demand that the country to break military aid from countries which commit human rights violations.
“Under Biden, it was clear that he had no intention of complying with international laws or in the United States which would have forced the United States to cut security aid in Israel.”
Ethnic cleaning can be considered both a war crime and a crime against humanity – and the criticisms say that Trump’s suggestion seems to be adapting to the description.
In 1994, United Nations experts defined ethnic cleaning as “a determined policy designed by an ethnic or religious group to eliminate violent and inspiring terrorism means the civilian population of another ethnic or religious group of certain geographic areas” .
The Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich welcomed Trump’s comments on Monday, saying that he is working with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the rest of the cabinet to “prepare an operational plan and ensure the realization of President Trump’s vision” .
Munayyer said that Israel had demonstrated with his actions that he wanted to depopulate Gaza.
“It is one thing to carry out ethnic cleaning by sending trucks and loading people, then forcing them under the threat of a weapon,” he said.
“Another way to do so is to simply destroy everything there, make it uninhabitable and essentially forcing the problem by making it impossible. And I think it has been a goal of the Israelis from the start. »»
Gaza’s future
Munayyer stressed that the reconstruction of Gaza requires a political will and a permanent ceasefire, not the displacement of its population.
“People are there throughout the genocide,” he said. “They are no longer in danger of death now that the bombs have stopped dropping them. It is far from being an ideal situation. But if you really wanted to start reconstruction and provide temporary housing and shelter and public services to these people during reconstruction, it is not like going on Mars. »»
Gaza is still in the first stage of the truce, which started on January 19 and will last 42 days. The future of the territory, including reconstruction plans, will only be finalized the second and third parties of the agreement.
But major questions remain on which Gaza will govern. Israel and the United States have said that it would not allow Hamas to stay in power.
Last month, Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, presented a “day after” plan for Gaza who would see other countries sending troops for staff of an interim security force, opening the way to a “fully reformed” (PA) Palestinian authority to govern the territory.
However, it is not clear if Hamas would accept foreign troops in Gaza. In addition, Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected the rejection of the territory to the AP, despite its close security coordination with the Israeli forces in the West Bank.
Okail said Palestinian voices were lacking in the conversation about the future of Gaza, stressing that the question of who governs the Palestinian territories should not be dictated by the United States, regional putures.
“Without resistance and dictation that governs and presents themselves in the elections, the Palestinians have an opportunity. They have the will and they have the capacity to participate in a political process, “she said.
