Gaza ceasefire deal: What do we know?

Sources told the BBC that Israel and Hamas have reached a deal that could end the war in Gaza and lead to the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners.

It would be the most dramatic breakthrough in 15 months of war, which began when the Palestinian armed group Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023.

Details of the deal reportedly agreed to by both parties have not yet been announced.

It is hoped that this will mean an agreement to end the war in Gaza.

An exchange of hostages and prisoners is also expected.

Hamas captured 251 hostages during its attack on Israel in October 2023. It still holds 94, although Israel estimates that only 60 are still alive.

Israel is expected to release around 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, some imprisoned for years, in exchange for the hostages.

This ceasefire should take place in three stages, once the agreement is announced.

And although both sides now appear to have accepted it, Israel’s security cabinet and government will need to approve the deal before it can be implemented.

Here’s what we’ve previously reported that could be in the deal.

First step

Israeli government spokesman David Mencer said 33 hostages – likely women, including female soldiers, children, the elderly and the sick or injured – would be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners.

Mr Mencer said most, but not all, of the 33 hostages were believed to be alive.

Three hostages would be immediately released, a Palestinian official told the BBCthe rest of the exchange taking place over six weeks.

During this stage, Israeli troops would begin to withdraw from populated areas of Gaza.

Israel would also allow displaced people currently in southern Gaza to begin returning to the north.

Almost all of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents have had to leave their homes due to Israeli evacuation orders, Israeli strikes and fighting on the ground.

There would also be an increase in humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza, with hundreds of trucks authorized each day.

The Palestinian official said detailed negotiations for the second and third stages would begin on the 16th day of the ceasefire.

Second step

What would happen in the second stage is unclear, but the outlines of the plans leaked to the media are emerging.

The remaining male hostages – soldiers and civilians – would be released in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners.

Of the 1,000 Palestinian prisoners Israel reportedly agreed to release in total, about 190 are serving sentences of 15 years or more. An Israeli official told the BBC that those convicted of murder would not be released in the occupied West Bank.

There would also be a complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza and the beginning of a “lasting calm.” This was defined in previous proposals as “a definitive cessation of military and hostile operations”.

Third step

The third and final step would involve rebuilding Gaza – which could take years – and returning the bodies of the remaining hostages.

Getting to this point required months of painstaking indirect negotiations, not least because Israel and Hamas completely distrust each other.

Hamas wanted to completely end the war before releasing the hostages, which was unacceptable to Israel.

The ceasefire will in effect suspend the war while its terms are respected.

However, it is unclear whether this will mean the definitive end of the war.

One of Israel’s main war objectives has been to destroy Hamas’s military and governmental capabilities. Although Israel has seriously damaged it, Hamas still has a certain capacity for action and regrouping.

It is also unclear which hostages are alive or dead, or whether Hamas knows the whereabouts of all those missing.

For its part, Hamas demanded the release of certain prisoners that Israel claims not to release. This appears to include those who participated in the October 7 attacks.

It is also unclear whether Israel will agree to withdraw from the buffer zone by a certain date, or whether its presence there will be unlimited.

Any ceasefire risks being fragile.

Ceasefires between Israel and Hamas, which had ended previous wars, were undermined by skirmishes and ultimately broken down.

The timing and complexity of this ceasefire mean that even a small incident could turn into a major threat.

Hundreds of Hamas-led gunmen launched an unprecedented attack on southern Israel, breaching the border fence and targeting communities, police stations and military bases.

Around 1,200 people were killed and more than 250 hostages were returned to Gaza. Hamas has also fired thousands of rockets into Israel.

Israel responded with a massive military campaign, first by air, then by land. Since then, Israel has attacked targets across Gaza by land, sea and air, while Hamas has attacked Israel with rockets.

The Israeli offensive has devastated Gaza and led to severe food shortages, with aid struggling to reach those who need it most. More than 46,700 people – mostly civilians – have been killed by Israeli attacks, according to the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza.