The Gaza ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas had not yet been ratified by the Israeli government as of Thursday, but the battle for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political future has already begun.
Hours after the deal was announced, Mr. Netanyahu faced an internal rebellion from his far-right partners in his governing coalition, on which he depends to stay in power.
Itamar Ben-Gvir, the national security minister, announced Thursday evening that his ultranationalist Jewish Power party would resign from Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition if the cabinet approved the ceasefire deal.
The move threatens to destabilize the government at a critical time, although it will not, in itself, prevent progress on the Gaza deal. A majority in the cabinet favors the ceasefire deal, and it is expected to be approved even without the votes of Jewish Power and another far-right coalition party, Religious Zionism. Led by Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, religious Zionism also vehemently opposes the deal.
Jewish Power holds six seats in the 120-seat parliament, and if the party resigns, as promised, it would reduce the government’s parliamentary majority to a razor-thin majority of 62 to 68. Mr. Ben-Gvir said his party would propose to join the government if it resumes the war against Hamas.
Mr. Smotrich, whose party holds seven seats, threatened to leave the government later if Mr. Netanyahu moves from the first phase of the ceasefire agreement, which calls for a six-week truce, to a truce permed.
Mr. Netanyahu could have a fateful choice to make in the politically precarious weeks ahead: maintain his parliamentary majority by resuming the fight against Hamas in Gaza or risk the collapse of the coalition halfway through his four-year term and bet on early elections.
After more than 15 months of devastating war and with President-elect Donald J. Trump set to take office on Monday, some analysts say ending the conflict in Gaza is a better option for the Israeli leader.
“Elections are one story,” said Moshe Klughaft, an Israeli strategic adviser and international political campaign manager who has advised Mr. Netanyahu in the past, adding that in the event of elections, Mr. Netanyahu’s next story will be l one of “war and peace”.
The first phase of the deal is expected to begin Sunday and last six weeks, during which Hamas is expected to release 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, and Israeli troops are expected to redeploy to the east, away from the populated areas of Gaza. .
If carried out, the second phase, over a further six weeks, will see the remainder of the hostages return home – some alive, others dead – and complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.
The families of the hostages pleaded with Mr. Netanyahu to put politics aside and complete the ceasefire deal. Mr. Trump has made it clear that he wants the war, sparked by the Hamas-led terrorist attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, to end.
The first Trump administration negotiated the normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and three Arab countries. Israelis are now eyeing the prospect of a bigger deal leading to formal ties with Saudi Arabia during Mr. Trump’s next term, an arrangement that would strengthen the regional axis against Israel’s archenemy, Israel. Iran.
Mr. Klughaft, the strategist, said he thought there was “a greater chance that Mr. Netanyahu would choose Saudi Arabia and the elections over Smotrich and the continuation of the war.”
Mr. Ben-Gvir and Mr. Smotrich want the war in Gaza to continue until Hamas is eliminated. Their hope is that the Israeli army will rule the Palestinian enclave and eventually pave the way for Jewish settlements there.
Mr. Ben-Gvir described the agreement as an Israeli “capitulation” to Hamas and called for a video statement for Mr. Smotrich to help him make up the numbers to thwart this by resigning from the government together. Neither has the power to overthrow the government single-handedly.
Mr. Ben-Gvir has already proven to be an unreliable and problematic coalition partner. Demanding pay rises for police, he refused to support the government in passing a crucial bill last month, force Mr Netanyahu from his hospital bed while recovering from prostate surgery and voted in the assembly to ensure the law passed.
Mr. Netanyahu has held frequent, lengthy meetings with Mr. Smotrich in recent days to persuade him to stay in the coalition. After three hours of talks between Mr. Smotrich and his party’s lawmakers on Thursday, the party issued an ultimatum demanding that Mr. Netanyahu resume the war against Hamas immediately after the first six-week ceasefire, as a condition for Mr. Smotrich remaining in government.
Mr. Netanyahu, meanwhile, delayed convening the cabinet for a vote to ratify the deal, citing last-minute differences with Hamas on the details.
Mr Netanyahu faces corruption charges in a lengthy trial and risks facing public accountability once the war ends, due to military and political failures in the run-up to the Hamas attack in 2023. Given the circumstances, some analysts believe that he will choose to derail the second phase of the agreement, if Hamas does not do so first, in order to keep his coalition intact.
“Netanyahu wants to stay in power,” said Gayil Talshir, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. “It makes no sense for him to run for office and not be able to win it. He wants two more years at the head of government.”
Mr. Netanyahu could still reach an agreement with Mr. Smotrich. Even if the finance minister joins Mr. Ben-Gvir in leaving the coalition, Mr. Netanyahu could, at least for a while, retain the head of a minority government. Opposition party leaders say they will provide Mr Netanyahu with a political safety net in the name of peace.
Regardless, the government will likely survive until the end of the first phase of the deal, said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, a nonpartisan research group based in Jerusalem.
But Mr Netanyahu may have to choose between his parliamentary majority and his relationship with the new administration in Washington, with Mr Trump and Saudi Arabia perhaps offering him an opportunity to burnish his legacy.
“I think he’s already set on the next big step,” Mr. Plesner said of Mr. Netanyahu, adding: “If he has to choose between an intimate relationship with the Trump administration, Smotrich and Ben- Gvir, he will choose for Trump.
U.S. and Israeli officials said the agreement reached this week was very similar to the proposal presented by President Biden last May.
Critics of Mr. Netanyahu’s government, including many families of the 98 hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza, have long accused the prime minister of sabotaging past efforts to reach a deal to preserve his coalition.
Mr. Ben-Gvir apparently confirmed those suspicions in his video statement this week, saying that he and Mr. Smotrich had used their political influence to thwart a similar deal “time and again” over the past year.
Mr. Netanyahu and his loyalists have blamed Hamas for the past failure to reach a deal.
Many Israelis and hostage families say they favor a deal that would bring all the hostages home. They include Rachel Goldberg-Polin and Jon Polin, the parents of Hersh Goldberg-Polin, a dual U.S.-Israeli citizen whose name was on the original list of hostages to be released in the first phase of a deal last year , but who was killed. with five other hostages last August by their captors in a tunnel in Gaza.
“It is imperative that this process is completed and that the 98 hostages are returned to their families,” they wrote in a statement welcoming the agreement on Thursday. “It is also time that the innocent civilians of Gaza are relieved of the suffering they have endured. »
