By Jamie McGeever
(Reuters) – An overview of the coming day in Asian markets.
A big week for the world markets begins on Monday in Asia on Monday, while investors continue to navigate the whirlwind of the big titles around the probable economic program of the American president Donald Trump, while trying to assess whether the story of “Exceptionalism American “does not lose its brilliance.
The dollar dropped 1.8 % last week, its worst week since November 2023. If the greenback is consolidated, it should not really be a surprise: it has reached a two years earlier this month- Ci and the clear “long” position of the hedge funds was the most important in nine years.
The dollar and American actions have been closely correlated, supported by the huge wave of influx of world capital while investors are massively betting on the American BOOM of AI, technology, growth and yields.
But if the fall in the dollar is a sign that the flame of “American exceptionalism” begins to vacillate, is Wall Street also ready for a period of reflection?
The S&P 500 reached a new summit last week and the Nasdaq approached it. The levels of the indices are historically high, the valuations are tense and a risk of a major event is looming this week in the form of the Fed political meeting and the results of the “Big Tech”.
The meticulous examination of American technology is intensifying as the repercussions of a Chinese Startup of AI called Deepseek propagate. Deepseek recently launched a free and open source AI model which, according to him, is at least equal to more established models like Chatgpt on several levels, but constructed at a cost fraction.
It is still early, but if that sheds critical light on the huge sums spent in AI by American technological companies, Wall Street could vacillate.
Monday’s Asian calendar is dominated by “official” reports of the purchasing directors in the manufacturing sector and Chinese services for January.
A Reuters survey suggests that the PMI manufacturing index will remain unchanged from the previous month at 50.1. On the one hand, this would represent the fourth consecutive month of expansion in the sector. This would also indicate almost zero growth for the second consecutive month.
The data published on Friday showed that the benefits of Chinese public enterprises were practically evaporated last year, increasing only 0.4% compared to the previous year. Larger figures on the benefits of the industrial sector are expected this week, perhaps on Monday, and should confirm that 2024 has been the worst year for decades.
Investors will make their verdict on the second day on the rise in rates of the Bank of Japan on Friday. The initial idea seemed to be that it was a “fellisist increase”, but the Japanese monetary markets still register only an additional tightening of 25 basic points this year, an unchanged level compared to levels before Friday. This suggests that BOJ forecasts were in fact rather neutral and that Japanese stock contracts point to a sharp increase on Monday.
