The day of the marmot arrived on Sunday February 2, and Punxsutawney Phil, the most famous prognosis of a marmot, saw its shadow, predicting six weeks of winter time. Boooo, say that those of us are already being cold. But there are a few questions about Phil’s precision. In fact, an opposum named Sand Mountain Sam In Boaz, Alabama predicted a start of spring this year, when it has not seen its shadow. How precise are these animal prognosticators anyway?
The national ocean and atmospheric administration has verified Punxsutawney Phil’s Phil’s Last year and found the predictions of the failed vague ambassador. This year, the NOAA has deepened the results of the day of the soil and classified the work of 19 brands and marmage substitutes to determine the accuracy of their predictions. Spoiler: Phil came in 17th.
Widen the image
A marmot nibbles vegetation in Virginia.
Noaa classifies Marvages
The NOAA has established some basic rules. Marmots and “alternative forms” must have pronounced for at least 20 years and must also have been active on February 2, 2024. The competitors included 13 marvels, three taxidermia A creature never seen presumed to be a groundhog, a statue of meadow dog and a turtle.
The NOAA has used data from its national environmental information centers, which maintains a data archive on the ocean, the weather and the climate. The agency compared the Groundhogs track records with American Mars temperature averages from 2005 to 2024.
The whole hail of Staten Island Chuck, a lucky on at the Zoo of Staten Island in New York. Chuck, also known as Charles G. Hogg, exceeded the classification with an 85%precision. He bit the mayor in 2009 when Michael Bloomberg tried to coax him for a ceremony of the marmot day.
The best marmot record was General Beauregard Lee of DAUSET Nature Center trails In Jackson, Georgia, with an accuracy of 80%. Third place belongs to Lander Lil, a bronze statue of a meadow dog in Lander, Wyoming. Lander Lil arrived at 75% precision. Marmots do not live in Wyoming, but meadow dogs do it. The prognosis principles are the same. If Lander Lil “sees” a shadow on the day of the marmot, then more winter is expected.
How Punxsutawney Phil fled
Widen the image
Mojave Max is a desert turtle like that illustrated here in an image of the National Park Service.
Overall, 14 of the marmots had a precision of 50% or better. Poor Punxsutawney Phil has only managed to clarify 35%, landing the bottom of the ranking. At least it is more precise than Mojave Max, a desert turtle at the Springs reserve in Nevada which took the last place with a precision of 25%.
The ranking may not be fair for Mojave Max, however. The turtle is not paraded on the day of the marmot. His predictions are based on the moment when he emerges from brief (like hibernation for reptiles). Max gets up between February and April of each year.
“Warm temperatures, longer hours and its own internal clock are known factors to contribute to its emergence each year”, ” The Clark County desert conservation program said. Its appearance marks the unofficial beginning of spring for southern Nevada.
The Groundhog Day has been a tradition at Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, in Pennsylvania since the late 1800s and it is still strong. The demystification of the NOAA on the weather forecast of Woodchuck does not harm the pleasure of the celebration. What Phil lacks precision, he compensates in glory, kindness and charisma. So go ahead and encourage Phil, but maybe base your spring plans on a rodent of Staten Island rather than Punxsutawney.
