A view of the turbines of the Orsted offshore wind farm near Nysted, Denmark, September 4, 2023.
Tom Little | Reuters
President Donald Trump has promised to trigger American energy domination, but his sculptor decree targeting wind energy puts a pipeline of in danger that would produce enough electricity for millions of American houses.
The order that Trump delivered during his first day in the office indefinitely interrupted new offshore wind leases in American coastal waters and has interrupted new permits pending the completion of an exam. The order endangers projects proposed on the East Coast which have not yet obtained a permit totaling 32 gigawatts of power, according to data from the Consulting Company Aurora Energy Research.
“For the moment, it is really difficult to see how one of these projects will be able to move forward,” said Artem Abramov, head of research on the new energies of the Rystad Council. Like Aurora, Rystad estimates that around 30 gigawatts of projects on the American east coast are at risk.
These projects, if carried out, would provide sufficient combined power for more than 12 million houses in the United States, according to a CNBC analysis of the data of the Ferive Information Administration. The order should not have an impact on construction projects totaling approximately 5 gigawatts, according to Aurora.
Trump abandoned the commitments made during the Biden administration to combat climate change, removing the United States for the second time from the Paris Agreement. He focused on the increase in the production of fossil fuels, opening American coastal waters to rent oil and gas the same day when it removed these waters for the wind.
Trump’s order will endanger the efforts of States in the Atlantic and Northeast Middle-East to move away from fossil fuels and decarbonize their electricity network, said Abramov. New York, New Jersey and Virginia, for example, have ambitious clean energy objectives adopted at the level of the state. But they are too far north to count on solar energy with a battery for food, said Abramov.
“If you want to achieve the future where electricity production in New York or New Jersey or Virginia is completely without fossil, if this is the ultimate goal, there are not as many alternatives to the wind Offshore, “said Abramov.
The order could ultimately force states to rely more on natural gas emitted by carbon, according to Rystad and Aurora. But it is practically impossible for a state like New York to meet its climatic objectives and to ensure adequate energy supply, in particular in the Normy of New York in the Metropolitan region of New York, without offshore wind, said Julia Hoos , which directs the American American division of Aurora.
The supply projects tailoring to connect to the electricity network in the northern New York State until 2027 are almost entirely wind and transmission, Hoos said.
“There is practically no possibility of bringing new online gases in the next 18 to 24 months, unless there is an important reform or there is a kind of fast way to Bring online, so that you can really encounter reliability problems, “said Hoos.
But a generation more natural gas will probably be built later in the back of Trump’s policies, Hoos said. The feeling of investors was already moving towards gas before the results of the elections due in part to the need for reliable power to meet the demand of artificial intelligence data centers, said Abramov.
Immediate impact
Two weeks after Trump’s order, New Jersey decided not to go ahead for the moment with the Atlantic Shores project, which was to become the first offshore state development of the state. The State Utilities Board cited “the uncertainty carried out by the actions and federal permits” and major in European oil Shell Withdraw from the project.
“The offshore wind industry is currently faced with significant challenges, and is the moment of patience and caution,” Governor Phil Murphy said in a statement supporting the Council’s decision.
Murphy, who has set himself the goal of reaching 100% clean energy in New Jersey by 2035, said that he hoped that “Trump administration will associate with New Jersey to reduce costs for Consumers, promote energy security and create good remuneration construction and manufacturing jobs.
The offshore wind in the United States “stopped, more or less with an immediate effect” following Trump’s order, Vestas wind energy systems The CEO, Henrik Andersen, told investors when the company’s February 5 results call. The Vestas of Denmark is one of the world leaders in the manufacture and maintenance of wind turbines.
Industry -contrary winds
Trump’s order deepens the challenges of an industry that already faced an uncertain perspective after the growth of years.
The wind has increased as a source of energy in the United States in the past 25 years, of 2.4 gigawatts of generation capacity installed at 150 gigawatts by April 2024, according to data from the Energy information administration. Wind generation has reached a record this month, going beyond the power of the coal. Wind currently represents around 11% of total American electricity production.
But the industry has fought against the bottlenecks of the supply chain and high interest rates. The offshore wind was already the most expensive form of renewable energy, said Abramov. In the United States, the developers have been confronted with great certainty due to the challenges of water construction rather than land, Hoos said.
“The industry hoped that the cost would decrease,” said Abramov. “We have not seen any project in the United States, which could have achieved a lower level cost of energy.”
The largest offshore wind developer in the world, Orsted in Denmark, decided on February 5 abandon your goal To install up to 38 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2030. Orsted has also reduced its investment program to the end of the decade by around 25% to reach 210 to 230 billion Danish crowns ( About 29 billion at $ 32 billion), compared to 270 billion shells before.
Orsted wind and revolution projects which are under construction in offshore New York and New England should not be affected by Trump’s order, CEO Rasmus Errboe told investors that the call Profits from the company of the company on February 6. Future developments could however be threatened.
“We are fully determined to advance them and deliver our commitments,” said Errboe. “We do not expect the decree to have implications on assets under construction, but of course the assets under development, it is potentially a different situation.”
The order should not have an impact on the wind of coastal virginia, the largest project of this type under construction in the United States at 2.6 gigawatts of power, said at the CEO of Dominion Energy, Robert Blue , investors told the income call on February 12.
“”To stop it would be the most inflationary action that could be taken with regard to energy in Virginia, “said Blue.” It is necessary to propel the growing market of data centers we have talked about, essential to pursue American superiority in AI and technology. “”
Looking for clarity
The Lobbies group of the American Clean Power wind industry in a January 20 declaration Describes Trump’s order as a general measure that will endanger the development of inner energy and will harm American companies and workers. The President’s order contradicts the administration’s objective to reduce bureaucracy and release energy production, the CEO of the ACP, Jason Grumet, in the press release said.
The ACP is now trying to clarify the Trump administration on how the decree will be implemented, said Frank Macchiarola, director of the group. It is not clear, for example, when the examination of rental practices and practices will be completed, said Macchiarola.
A spokesperson for the Interior Department simply said that the Department is implementing Trump’s decree when he was asked for comments on a detailed list of questions. When asked at the end of the examination of rental practices and practices, the spokesman said that any estimate would be hypothetical.
The wind industry is committed to working with the Trump administration, supports the agenda of the president of the president’s push and argues that renewable energies have a key role to play in this program as the biggest news Source of electricity in the United States, said Macchiarola.
“When previous administrations have chosen to stifle the development of American energy which was almost universally considered a mistake,” said Macchiarola.
Wind -to -earth permit has also been interrupted pending examination, but the part of the industry is unlikely to deal with a substantial impact, said Abramov de Rystad. Wind farms on the ground are almost entirely built on private rather than federal lands, he said. The market is also already saturated and the addition of capacity depends largely on the construction of more energy storage first, said the analyst.
The offshore wind, however, is a much less mature market in the United States and has been considered a major growth opportunity for industry, said Abramov. But it seems to change quickly.
“They do not see the United States as a market for continuous expansion of offshore wind until this order is in place,” said the analyst.
– Gabriel Cortes de CNBC contributed to this report.
