Only 18 months ago, Daniel Noboa, 37, won the presidency of the equator, becoming the youngest man ever elected to the office.
Now, Sunday, he faces polls once again.
This time, however, a larger price is at stake: a complete four -year term in the presidential palace. Since Noboa’s last victory was in the blink of an eye, he limited himself to serving the rest of the mandate of his predecessor.
In the Sunday race, Noboa will face 15 contenders, including the left legislative Luisa Gonzalez, his main competition in the last elections. The vote is about to be a referendum on its brief passage in office so far.
Noboa came into office as a candidate for the law and the order, leading several measures expanding the powers of the police – sometimes to the detriment of surveillance and civil freedoms. But the equator nevertheless continued to suffer from high levels of violence and organized crime.
Who are the candidates? What questions are voters focused on? And what can opinion surveys say on the state of the race? We answer these questions and more in this brief explanator.
What is the voting process of the equator?
The first voting round will take place on Sunday, February 9. To gain place, a candidate must obtain more than 50% of the votes, or at least 40% with an advantage of 10 points on the candidate in second place.
If a candidate does not succeed in this threshold in the first round, a second voting cycle will take place on April 13, featuring the two best candidates.
Is the presidency the only office to win?
No. This is a general election. All seats in the National Assembly of 151 members of the country will also be won, and people elected to the Legislative Assembly will also serve four -year mandates.
Why was Noboa’s mandate in office so short?
President Noboa was elected for the first time in October 2023 after his predecessor Guillermo Lasso, faced with a dismissal procedure, invoked a constitutional mechanism known as “Muerte Cruzada” or “Crossed Death”.
No president had ever deployed the Muerte Cruzada before. Not only did it end at the end of Lasso, but it also dissolved the legislature of the equator, triggering early elections.
At the time, Noboa was a member of the first mandate of the National Assembly, and he was one of the elected officials affected by Muerte Cruzada.
The heir of a banana commercial fortune, Noboa finally trained his own party and presented himself to the presidency, winning a tight race which progressed in a second round. He was 35 years old at the time.
He then finished what would have been the rest of the duration of Lasso, a period of 18 months. Now he is looking for his own four -year term.
What do the polls say?
Noboa will face competition from a crowded field of candidates. But his biggest competition is likely to be Luisa Gonzalez, which he beat with a margin of less than four points in 2023.
Gonzalez represents the party of the left citizen revolution, founded by former President Rafael Correa.
Most polls show Noboa in mind – but short of the threshold to avoid runoff. It is very likely that, as in 2023, the elections will proceed to a second round which points Noboa against Gonzalez.
The surveys show no other candidate with enough support to challenge the frontrunners, but the pre-electoral survey does not always tell the whole story. Noboa himself was barely enrolled in the intention polls of voters before the first voting round in 2023.
Who else runs?
Some familiar faces are in the range. Jan Topic, a right -wing businessman who ran in 2023, is again in competition, taking up his call for iron policies – or “Mano Dura” – to fight crime.
Leonidas Iza, president of the powerful indigenous confederation of the Conaie country, is also a return candidate. He was an eminent critic of former President Lasso and campaigned on a platform of greater sovereignty and opportunities for indigenous peoples.
Another candidate is likely to recall the difficulties of the equator against violence.
In 2023, the presidential race was shaken when an anti -corruption candidate, Fernando Villavicencio, was shot dead after leaving a rally, shortly before the vote. He had sought to highlight the link between organized crime and government corruption.
His former running mate, Andrea Gonzalez, will be in the race on Sunday.
What do the polls say on the National Assembly?
In the race for the control of the Legislative Assembly, the parties of Noboa and Gonzalez also direct the rest of the field.
Most polls in January showed Noboa National Democratic Party (DNA) leading the Gonzalez citizen revolution (RC) by variable margins. A single survey found the RC in advance on DNA of about three points.
Currently, the National Assembly has 137 places, and Citizen Revolution has the most seats from all the parties: 48. But after the elections on Sunday, the National Assembly will extend to 151 seats, and the party of Noboa should do important gains.
What questions do voters care the most?
A certain number of problems have appeared as important priorities in public opinion polls, such as the increase in the cost of living, the lack of adequate economic opportunities and a series of electricity failures that have rendered the difficult life to residents of the country.
But a January election By the data firm, Comuniciza suggested that a problem has priority on all others: crime and insecurity. He exceeded the second highest concern, the lack of employment possibilities, about 14 points.
“He reflected in the investigation after survey according to which it is the number one concern,” Ivan Briscoe, an expert in Latin American politics of the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera.
Why has violence become such a problem in equator?
Ecuador was once considered as a safer and more stable country than the other parts of South America. He acquired a reputation as a “island of peace” in a region otherwise known for the culture of cocaine and traffic.
But in recent years, an explosion of violence and organized criminal activities has shocked the country.
“The equator had 7,000 murders last year with a population of 18 million inhabitants, making it the highest murder rate in South America. And it is in a country that for decades was known as a peaceful country, “said Briscoe.
“It highlights the disability of the state to answer, but also raises the question of the complicity of state officials in criminal companies and, therefore, the extent of corruption.”
The equator is on the Pacific coast between Colombia and Peru, the world’s largest producers in cocaine.
In the aftermath of the covid-19 pandemic, experts say that drug trafficking groups began to grow in the territory of the equator, seeking to take advantage of the country’s ports.
The pandemic also devastated the economy of the equator, leaving many unemployed young people and vulnerable to recruitment from criminal networks.
Noboa blamed his predecessors for allowing cocaine production to take root in equator. In October, his government announced that the production of COCA – the gross ingredient for the medication – had been detected on approximately 2,000 hectares (4,942 acres) of land.
What solutions have been proposed?
Voters have largely brought their confidence in severe solutions.
In April, for example, the country largely voted in favor of reforms that would formalize the role of soldiers in public security and impose more strict sanctions for crimes such as drug trafficking.
Noboa himself has shown a desire to suspend key civil freedoms in the name of the progress of security.
In January 2024, Noboa announced that the country was “at war” with criminal groups and declared an internal armed conflict state, widening the role of the military in law enforcement activities.
So far, the results have been mixed. While the murder rate dropped slightly in 2024, it remains well above the pre-pale levels.
The abuses have also been revealed which raise questions about the widened powers of the military. In one case, surveillance images seemed to show a military truck removing four young people in the port city of Guayaquil. Their charred remains were then found near a military base.
But Briscoe said that, for the moment, Ecuadorian policy is dominated by rhetoric and difficult ideas on crime.
“No one suggests negotiating with criminal groups. It is not on the agenda of a candidate, “he said.
But he added that the security measures would not be enough alone to approach the roots of the crime in equator.
“When you can’t leave your home because of a crime, you will want the state to react,” he said.
“In the long term, however, these policies in mind of security as the deployment of soldiers will tend to fail if they are not accompanied by other more systemic and large -scale approaches which deal with corruption, socioeconomic inequalities and criminal surveys. “
