Beyond encryption: Why quantum computing might be more of a science boom than a cybersecurity bust

Last August, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) published the first three “Post-quantum encryption standardsDesigned to withstand an attack on a quantum computer. For years, cryptography experts feared that the advent of quantum computer science could spell traditional encryption methods. With technology now firmly on the horizon, the new NIST standards represent the first significant step towards post-surmitum protections.

But is quantum calculation the threat of encryption it has been made? If it is true that quantum computers will be able to break traditional encryption faster and more easily, we are still far from the “no more secret” decryption box imagined in the 1992 film Sneakers. Energy requests and calculation power always limiting factors, those who have access to quantum computers are probably planning to put technology to better use elsewhere – such as science, pharmaceuticals and health care.

Remember the theory of the electron microscope?

I spent a lot of time working in digital criminalics, and it gave me a unique perspective on the challenges of quantum computers. In 1996, Peter Gutman published a white paper, “the secure deletion of magnetic memory data and in solid state”, which theorized that the deleted data could be recovered from a hard drive using an electron microscope. Was it possible? Perhaps – but in the end, the process would be incredibly laborious, with a high intensity of resources and unreliable. More importantly, it was not long before hard drives stored information so densely wrapped that even an electron microscope had no hope of recovering deleted data.

In fact, there is almost no evidence that such an electron microscope has been used successfully for this purpose, and Modern tests confirm that the method is neither practical nor reliable. But fear was real – and that led the US Department of Defense (DOD) issuing its famous method of erasing the “7 Pass” data to eliminate all medico -legal proof that an electric microscope could theoretically detect. Should we take additional precautions with sensitive or classified data? Of course. But the threat was far from being as disastrous as that of being. Regarding quantum computer science, we can head to a similar road.

The practical reality of quantum computer science

First of all, it is important to understand the functioning of quantum computer science. Despite the way films like to represent pirates, it is not a magic wand that will instantly end cryptography as we know it. He must always be fed by individual messages and responsible for breaking encryption – which means that attackers will have to have a fairly good idea of ​​messages contain precious information. It may seem easy, but more than 300 billion emails are sent every day, as well as billions of texts. There are ways to reduce the scope of research, but it always requires that the attacker throws a lot of computing power to the problem.

This brings me to the real problem: the computing power is not infinite. Quantum IT is at the cutting edge of technology, which means that your average script or your pirate collective will not be able to get your hands on it. The only players who will have access to quantum computers (and the energy necessary to execute them) will be players in the nation state and large companies such as Google, Microsoft and AI companies. To put it simply, quantum computer science will initially be expensive and not as fast to market, because many have argued – and this means that the nation states will have only a lot of computing power at their disposal. The question is therefore the following: is the breakdown of the encryption protocols really what they plan to spend it?

Real use cases for quantum

The answer is strong … maybe. For me, the real advantages of Quantum belongs to research, economic competition and global influence. This does not mean that quantum computers will not be put to use the crunching of cracking if a hostile nation state is getting their hands on something they know well – but it will not be the main way that technology is used. Look at this in this way: if you are a foreign power with access to the most advanced IT models on Earth, what are you using them? Do you want to do a wild goose hunt through millions of encrypted communications, or do you spend this critical time, energy and calculation to cure cancer, eradicate dementia or create new advanced materials? For me, it’s obvious. An individual attacker could be after short -term gains, but the nations will think in the longer term.

Quantum IT is likely to drive Important breakthroughs In the development of new materials and catalysts, leading to the creation of stronger and lighter composites for manufacturing and more reactive catalysts for chemical processes. This alone has the potential to revolutionize several industries, offering a much greater long -term gain for the deployment of technology. Quantum IT has also been promising in the pharmaceutical industry, helping researchers to develop More efficient drugs and other treatments in a fraction of time. Technology is even used to improve Travel capacities in space By allowing faster trajectory calculations, which makes navigation more precise and optimizing the use of fuel.

This is up to a cost-to-dispatch analysis. Only the nation states and large companies will have access to quantum IT anytime soon-and will they really spend their algorithms of encryption of limited calculation power when they could rather increase their economic production and dominate the financial markets? This does not mean that each use case for quantum computers is good – in bad hands, it could certainly be used in a dangerous way. But with so much concentration on the so-called “quantum apocalypse”, some believe that the context is imminent.

Is the estimation of encryption on the list of use cases for quantum IT? Yes. But it is not high on the list. So, before spending billions of dollars to tear and replace each cryptographic algorithm used, it could be time to take a deep inspiration and consider how quantum computers will really be used.

Rob Lee is the head of research and the leader of the teachers to Without institute.