The results of a rare auction and watched in Japan which ended this week is about to be published. But there were no paintings or ancient cars on the auction block.
The government sells 165,000 tonnes of rice – equivalent to around two billion bowls – of its emergency stock to compensate for more than 200,000 tonnes which, according to some Japanese media, have “disappeared”.
But there is more in history.
Japan does not have enough rice, a pillar of its diet. A shortage forced supermarkets to implement purchasing limits, and the outbreak of prices pushed restaurants to increase the prices of daily food. Things have become so disastrous that, for the first time, the government operates its emergency stock in order to reduce prices.
“Something really unthinkable happens, so we have to make the current abnormal situation to normal,” said Taku Eto, the Minister of Agriculture, to journalists last month, referring to the crisis and three -day auctions that ended on Wednesday.
How did it happen?
Rice began to become rare in Japan last summer. Experts attributed this to a confluence of factors, including record summer heat in 2023 which affects harvesting and natural warnings of disasters that triggered the purchase of panic.
Japan also strictly limits rice production in order to maintain high prices and support interior rice producers, which means that minor disruptions of the supply chain can have significantly significant impacts.
An 11 -pound rice bag now costs nearly 4,000 yen ($ 27), double the price a year earlier. While prices were starting to increase last year, the authorities warned against the purchase of panic, saying that the Japan autumn harvest would reconstruct the shares and reduce prices.
Only one of these two predictions has been realized. Even if the harvest brought more rice than the harvest of the previous year, Japanese distributors had less for sale in 2024.
“No one knows,” said Shuji Hisano, professor at the Graduate School of Economics at the University of Kyoto.
But experts inside and outside the government think they have a fairly good idea.
It has become more difficult to follow the distribution of rice in Japan, as policy changes have given producers more means to sell rice without going through the main traditional distributors, said Professor Hisano. This trend, the more strict limits on rice production, means that even slight supply and demand fluctuations can trigger speculative purchases and storage.
Speculators are probably now in love with rice because they think prices will continue to increase, said Masayuki Ogawa, assistant professor of agricultural economy at the University of Utsunomiya.
“Some companies and individuals have started to treat in rice as a money game,” he said.
Will this auction help?
We will discover it in the weeks and months to come.
The government’s decision to sell part of its reserves of auction strategic rice was historic. In the past, the stock has been reserved to support supplies in the case of natural disasters or crop failures. This is the first time that it has been used to solve distribution problems.
The government has put aside 231,000 tonnes to be released, to match the national deficit. This figure represents more than a fifth of the total emergency stock in Japan, which is listed in more than 300 locations.
Distributors bid on the first 165,000 tons at auction, and the results – which will be announced on Friday – will show how many tonnes have been sold. The government said it hoped that rice will begin to flow to wholesalers and supermarkets, and that the remaining 66,000 tonnes will be auction later if necessary.
For a nation that works on rice – the average Japanese person consumed around 110 pounds of rice per year at 2022, against 27 pounds per year for the average American – uncertainty on rice supplies is disturbing.
“Rice is an integral part of Japanese’s life,” said Takao Iizuka, 62, from his store in Tokyo. “I think that because there are concerns about whether rice is available or not, the Japanese are worried at the moment.”
M. Iizuka sells raw rice by the bag and cooked in the form of rice balls with marinated plums, salmon and other garnishes. Last month, he was forced to increase the price of his rice balls by $ 1 by around 20% to follow the prices in blatant the prices of their main ingredient.
Now, he worries, for the first time during the three decades, he worked at the store, to find out if he will be able to find enough rice to last until the next harvest. One of his suppliers told him in January that they had already lacked rice for the year.
“This is the first time that I have felt this feeling of anxiety,” he said.
