Former senior Canadian intelligence officials say Canada must be looking for campaigns to destabilize the country in the midsts of US President Donald Trump.
And they told CBC News that the most powerful weapon exercised by the Trump administration to advance the cause of the annexation would probably not be the intelligence agencies led by national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard.
“I would consider Mr. Musk as a problem,” said Ward Elcock, who led the CSIs for a decade, including during the September 11 attacks and was also a national security advisor. “I think it’s on a number of fronts.”
The US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has worked to destabilize many governments and nations in the past, using methods as banal as corruption and as drastic as assassination, but the former spy leaders say that a campaign intended for Canada would probably rely less on X-Et-Dague tactics and more on social media-like the X platform.
“East [Trump] Are you trying to change political opinions in this country? If this is the case, it is a foreign interference, “said Dick Fadden, who also managed the CSIs and was an advisor to the national security of former Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
“It is not more acceptable from the United States than from China or Russia or anyone.”
Economic distress: Canada’s weak point
Neil Bisson is a former CSIS intelligence officer who is now director of the Global Intelligence Knowledge Network and teaches the University of Ottawa Professional Development Institute.
He says that in spite of visible signs of Canadian unit in the face of annexes, there are those who are vulnerable to the Sirène call, especially among young people who feel economically disadvantaged.
“It would be one of the cobblestones, one of the cracks in armor that another country will plan to try to exploit,” he told CBC News. “If you have individuals who are concerned about where their next meal comes or if they are going to make a roof over their heads, this replaces sovereignty.”
US President Donald Trump stops prices – once again – on certain goods from Canada and Mexico. Andrew Chang breaks down two schools of thought: if Trump’s chaotic approach stems from the lack of planning or a much more intentional strategy.
He said that these Canadians could be targeted by propaganda campaigns that sell American citizenship as a response to their economic misfortunes.
“And there will be individuals in Canada who could potentially be co -opted to advance this story,” said Bisson.
Trump administration officials have given many justifications for prices against Canada, but Trump himself said he wanted to use economic strength To reach Canada in the United States on Tuesday morning, he once again declared that Canada could not prevent economic ruin by annexation.
“He intends to try to destabilize our economy,” said Elcock. “The reality is that if Canada is really impoverished, people can start thinking about it. This is always the possibility – that not all Canadians will be willing to endure economic deprivation. And therefore some may start to think about it over time.”
‘People start to believe it’
Fadden says that governments and intelligence agencies have learned the laundy of the power of disinformation and propaganda channeled through social media.
“You continue to repeat things quite often, people start to believe it,” he said. “If he continues on this path for years, almost anyone can be worn.”
In addition to sending politicians to negotiate with counterparts in Washington, said Fadden, “we have to find a way to play on the information front”.
He says that it means finding ways “using social media more effectively than I think”. “”
Bisson says that government help for people affected by prices could dull the impact of such propaganda.
“It is the Canadian government that tries to consolidate this political opinion within its own citizenship to say:” OK, we have covered this, we will take care of you whatever happens “,” he said.
“Because if it was not done and things were starting to destabilize economically, it would give people even more reasons to withdraw on reflection, well, it may be a better idea if we have just succumbed to that.”
‘Tripwires’ for spies
Intelligence professionals say it is possible that the US government uses more intrusive tactics, such as foment or finance pro-annexationist groups in Canada to create the impression of an idea for the idea.
“They have an extraordinary ability to do so,” said Fadden. “The real problem for me is whether with regard to Canada, they will really use these capacities and resources.”
He says Canada should be on the lookout. “We have to start with the basics. We have to start monitoring money flows. We have to start talking about whether they try to interfere with our elections at all levels.”
But he says that secret Canadian soil operations would likely offer the small American return in exchange for many risks. And Trump is usually his own messenger, preferring megaphone to the coded message.
“I would say that the president’s current approach is likely to be as effective as using the relatively secret resources of the CIA or the American intelligence community,” said Fadden.
Former spy leaders say that US intelligence agencies have rarely operated in Canada in the past and would need time to develop networks. It would be difficult for them to become very far without alerting the Canadians to their presence, said Elcock.
“Intelligence organizations are looking for possible threats all the time,” he said, and has created “tripwires”, created to help monitor the threat environment.
“The probability that the Americans set up something, like a tripwire at some point or speak to someone who would bring him back-these things are very likely,” he said.
Purge in agencies
The intelligence professionals who spoke to CBC News all said that they trusted the professionalism of their American counterparts, and their historic attachments to alliances such as five eyes and NATO.
Elcock said US agencies should worry so that their own people speak.
“There is a long relationship between Canada and the United States and there will always be people around whom would not necessarily approve. So, I don’t think they could with certainty do something like that-it was not a very, very closely organized operation,” he said.
But these calculations could change if the Trump administration continues to delete and replace staff in agencies to the level of management and operational.
“The more people who buy in the philosophy of the life of the current American president,” said Fadden, “the more he brings professionals to the intelligence community and puts his own people, the more worrying.”
As for Canadians who want to see their country annexed and have made this case strongly, Elcock says that not everyone should necessarily be considered a security threat.
“It would depend on their activities. There are a lot of people who have strange ideas in Canada who are not considered a threat to Canada’s security,” he said. “Many of these organizations are already on radar. So reality is that if they are starting to become active, it will not be something that no one knows.”
Experts have all said that Canada is a much more resilient target than other countries where the United States is known for having carried out destabilization operations, but that does not mean that it is immune to pressure.
“We have to worry more and speak more of the medium and long term, rather than just worrying about the extremely important prices that are there now,” said Fadden.
He warned if Canada is subject to an prolonged economic war campaign, then “at one point, someone will have to cry the uncle”.
Although Fadden does not see a military invasion on the horizon, he said that “the country’s economic and cultural control can be just as effective”.
