Trump’s protectionist policies could push Europe toward China

Tensions between the United States and Europe have achieved something weak in recent weeks – and China could be ready to use spit to strengthen its relationships on the continent.

Transatlantic strains headed last week at a disastrous meeting between US President Donald Trump, vice-president JD Vance and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office. What started as a potential signature of a critical mineral agreement ended with a public cries match.

Trump also made repeated threats of prices on EU imports and said that the block was “formed to screw the United States”. Vance, on the other hand, castigated Europe last month at the Munich security conference, saying that it was worried about “the threat of the interior”.

This tension in the so-called “special relationship” saw Beijing becoming an unexpected ally and a defender of Europe, the Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi visiting the continent last month to urge closer ties and more cooperation.

“China is clearly responding with a charming offensive, trying to describe itself as a stabilization force and an alternative pole potential, exploiting European fears and hoping for reset on the own Beijing conditions,” said CNBC by email Alicja Bachulska, member of the European Council for Foreign Relations.

After the EU and Ukraine have been excluded from peace talks led by the United States with Russia, Wang said During the Munich security conference, China hopes that all parties will be able to participate in peace talks to end the war in Ukraine. “While the war takes place on European soil, it is all the more necessary that Europe plays its role for peace,” he said in the comments reported by Reuters.

For Beijing, expressing its support for the role of Europe in the peace negotiations in Ukraine is a “low cost means” to report its respect for the EU and “draw with Trump”, according to Gabriel Wildau, Managing Director of Teneo.

“China aims to acquire a strategic influence on Europe, as shown by their investment and trade policies. The incursions in the context of Ukraine should be assessed under this perspective,” said Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group’s political risk at CNBC by e-mail.

While Trump doubles on protectionist policies, analysts say that China wishes to gain Europe without American pressure to impose sanctions and restrictions against Beijing.

Europe has historically largely aligned with American trade policies designed to protect Western technological innovations and its economic interests.

Take a Dutch chip equipment manufacturer ASMLFor example, whose sales of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment was limited by the Dutch government following American export controls.

“A large part of Europe’s reduction on China was at the request of the United States which, in a way, is part of the price of being captivated … and dependent on the United States for the defense,” said David Roche, Stratège de Quantum Strategy, in CNBC during a call.

“Europeans can be affected [by potential tariffs]But they will no longer be slaves to the Americans, “said Roche.

A fractured transatlantic alliance could therefore benefit Beijing, while Europe becomes “less sensitive” to American pressure, said Wildau de Teneo, which can lead to a decline in existing export controls or at least stopping new ones.

According to Wildau, an example of a change in trade policy could be the current European Union prices on Chinese vehicles, which said that the block leaders could conclude that they have “other choice” than to overthrow the course.

The European automotive industry has been Under increasing pressure while car manufacturers are fighting with several opposite winds ranging from transition to electric vehicles, growing competition from China and now the threat of American prices.

Chinese cooperation could help Europe manufacture the parts necessary for its electric vehicles, allowing the block to catch up with technology and meet its durability objectives, suggested Roche – with a single gap that China could potentially fill.

“The reality is that, in the broadest sense of the term, Europe must seek alternative markets to American China can help,” added Roche.

The recent movements of President Trump aroused leaders in Europe, with Friedrich Merz in Germany developer Public broadcaster Ard in a speech after the victory of his party last week that the United States is now “indifferent” to the fate of Europe, and that its priority is for Europe to “achieve the independence of the United States”.

“Merz’s comments will not go unnoticed by Beijing”, “Thanos Papasavs, founder and director of investments at ABP Invest in CNBC by e-mail:” The key question here is whether the traditional commercial relationship of Germany with China would also be seen in the same vein by other member states. “”

Some analysts say that it is not clear how much progress can be made to repair what has long been a tense relationship between Europe and China.

“After all, it is always the same China that the EU has had to face in recent years – China that supports Russia, China which threatens the industrial power of Europe, and China which imposes sanctions on European officials and civil society organizations,” said Bachulska of the European Council on foreign relations.

Bremmer of the Eurasia group added that, in the end, Beijing’s efforts to restore relations with Europe align with its broader objective of weakening the West as a whole by undermining the link between Europe and the United States

“Europeans will not be far from the United States by transactional policies adopted in Washington, but openly hostile and predatory,” he said. “If this trend continues, transatlantic partners are heading for a split.”