Tokyo – President Trump, in early March, criticized what he characterized as a unilateral security alliance between the United States and Japan. Japan officials have already heard these comments from Mr. Trump, and so far, they have continued to shape the country’s national security plans according to the United States support insurance.
Government representatives admit that they really have no other choice.
“There is no plan B for Japan other than the United States”, Takuya Akiyama, The main deputy director of the North American Bureau of the Japanese Foreign Ministry, told CBS News. “Controlled and also as a physical presence, no other country can replace the United States, it is unthinkable.”
The United States can withdraw from Europe Under President Trump, but despite his remarks on Japan, American military cooperation with Tokyo appeared stable, and can even develop while the White House increases its dead end with Asia Asserted superpower, China.
The threat of China to its neighbors
Japanese officials may have sigh of relief after the visit of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to the White House in February. The Trump administration reaffirmed its commitment to the defense of Japan, especially in the middle of the Tokyo dispute with Beijing on the property of the Senkaku Islands.
It is one of the many land ownership conflicts between China and its neighbors on the islands of the Southern China Sea – practically all the claims of Beijing as a territory. The White House has sentenced several times Chinese assault And militarization in the Southern China Sea, and warships and US planes regularly carry out “freedom of navigation” in the region – often pulling strong Beijing rebukes.
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The advisers of the Japanese Prime Minister spent the months after the US elections to prepare him for the meeting with Mr. Trump. They focused on using clear and concise language to transmit the benefits of the security alliance in the United States, and the increase in Japan has made in its own defense expenses and military purchases from America, according to officials from the Japanese Foreign Ministry.
China was quickly Strengthen its military capacitiesIncluding its nuclear program in recent years, according to US officials. Last year, China announced An increase of 7.2% of its defense budgetWho was already the second highest in the world, only behind the United States.
In February, Taiwan sentenced China and deployed its own forces in response as a Chinese soldier “shooting training” exercises in the Taiwan Strait.
“From an American perspective, it is clear that if Taiwan falls, and if Japan falls, our alliances in Indo-Pacific are over,” CBS News Kenneth Weinstein, president of Japan at the Think Tank of the Hudson Institute, told CBS. “China will have an extraordinary military influence – will be able to close world expeditions as it will see, will be able to stifle access to the Southern China Sea and elsewhere.”
There have already been tense meetings between Japanese and Chinese naval ships around the Senkaku Islands, a group of uninhabited islands claimed by Beijing and Tokyo. According to data from the Japan Coast Guard, the Chinese government ships entered the maritime area around the islands, which China calls Diaoyus, out of 355 of the 366 days of 2024 – the largest number of intrusions reported by Japan since China began to operate around the islands in 2008.
Chinese ships operating around the islands have increased not only in number, but in armaments, carrying larger weapons by surrounding the disputed territories, according to officials of foreign ministries and defense.
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Although Japanese analysts do not believe that a Chinese military invasion of the Senkaku Islands is imminent, they say that there is a risk that an accident or an incident involving fishing or other non -military ships in the region can cause rapid military climbing.
“The Chinese Communist Party believes in power. They have started to act because they now believe that they now have the power to do so,” the expert in China, a teacher from Tokyo Woman’s Christian University, told CBS News. “We want the United States to increase its presence in this region, because the Chinese will certainly improve its presence in the region.”
Major food for the cooperation of US-Japanese Defense to come?
Japan has reorganized its approach to defense in recent years, in particular by committing to devoting 2% of its GDP to Defense by 2027. Japan announced a major change in policy in 2022, abandoning the country’s defense posture, exclusively with a decision to acquire counter-contribution capacities.
The Trump administration apparently approved changes, and he did not ask Japan an even greater increase in defense spending, as some Japanese officials feared him.
While Mr. Trump specifically complained this month of the hypothetical preparation of Japan to respect his obligation of mutual defense in the United States under article 5 of the US-Japaneal Security TreatyJapanese officials have tried to focus more on article 6, under which Japan provides bases and facilities for American forces. And this aspect of the relationship could be ready to develop.
The United States and Japan have had discussions since Mr. Trump returned to the White House about the possible establishment of a joint headquarters in Japan. If this happens, this would improve the role of American forces in Japan to a headquarters with the operational authority. The dialogue on upgrade was announced under the Biden administration, after being asked by the Japanese.
In the event of a regional security crisis – such as a Chinese attack on Taiwan or a disputed island of the Southern China Sea – having a joint force of force in Japan would give the American army the ability to respond with commands from the region, rather than waiting for orders to come from the American Indo -Pacific command in Hawaii.
The American Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, is expected to meet his Japanese counterpart at the end of March to discuss efforts to strengthen US forces in the Pacific region.
Concern against Ukraine
The dramatic Facilitation by the Trump administration in his position on Ukraine have also been concerned in Japan. Since Russia launched its large -scale invasion in February 2022, Japan was a fervent supporter of Ukraine. The Japanese authorities are concerned about the previous one which would be fixed if the United States abandons a partner nation in the face of a more powerful invasion by a neighbor.
“In the light of Russia’s assault against Ukraine, countries perceptions have radically changed worldwide,” Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said at a regional security summit in June 2022, several months after the invasion of Russia. “I myself have a strong sense of urgency that Ukraine today can be in East Asia tomorrow.”
The Japanese fear that if the United States and the world as a whole are ready to accept a change in European borders forced by the Russian attack, they could also refuse to intervene in the case of a Chinese attack on Taiwan.
“The Chinese will be encouraged that, maybe if Xi Jinping has done something similar, Trump will be as nice to Xi Jinping as in Putin,” Takahara told CBS News. “This type of message will be received in Beijing.”
Tokyo officials are trying to stay focused on the long-term bilateral relationship with Washington, looking beyond the Trump administration, but they know that China is growing closely, the relationship is developing, in particular given the volatile nature of the Trump administration’s foreign policy.
“We do not know what Mr. Trump will say tomorrow and do the next day. So, at least the visit of Ishiba, the first round, we went well. We were happy on this subject,” said Takahara. “But what about the next round? When is it coming? No one knows.”
