To cancel or not to cancel.
This is the enigma to which the new Prime Minister of Canada, Mark Carney, is faced while being ready to call a federal election which will probably be defined and fought for a question: who trusts Canadians to face an intimidable American president determined to transform a sovereign country officially an American state?
Beyond the Tit-For-Tat prices imposed in what threatens an increasing and punitive trade war between Canada and the United States, another thorny flashpoint emerged.
It is the first “test” of Carney’s promised commitment to wean the nation he hopes to direct for years, not weeks, of his long dependence anchored with regard to a dominant southern neighbor.
Carney is pressed by generally disparate and antagonistic forces along the narrow political spectrum of Canada to abandon the rest of an agreement of $ 19 billion – designed late by its predecessor, Justin Trudeau – To buy 62 additional F -35 hunting planes and maintained F -35.
Canada has already paid 16 war planes, which should be delivered early next year.
Conservative experts Writing for conservative newspapers has joined the former Liberal Minister for Foreign Affairs, Lloyd Axworthy, and peace and disarmament groups by urging Prime Minister to “resist” Donald Trump, commander Mercurial.
Namely, they demand that Carney follow the example of Portugal and AX to the planned purchase of more technically troubled jets as a tangible expression of Canada’s rejection of Trump’s imperial conceptions, as well as a spicy financial and diplomatic defense of the autonomy of the besieged confederation.
Axworthy said A television interviewer recently that it would be “a mistake to continue” with the acquisition of F-35 Jets.
Instead, he argued that Canada should “repel” a belligerent president who “kicked our teeth”.
“I think this is an opportunity for us to say,” suggested Axworthy. “Do we want ourselves … Our soldier so tangled with the American army that our discretion and our independence of movement are limited?”
It is strange that, in 2025, Axworthy challenged Canada to embrace “the opportunity” to be distant militarily in the United States when a succession of liberal and conservative primary ministers, from 1945, merged the armed forces of the partner of the Pentagon of “Junior Junior John”.
In any event, an Axworthy suddenly released also stressed that the “digital box” housing the operating software for war aircraft is controlled by the giant American weapons manufacturer, Lockheed Martin.
The fear is that a vindictive Trump can order the aerospace entrepreneur and the “defense” to refuse Canada access to any software upgrading that would allow the deadly capacities of the flight jets.
These calls, anchored as they keep the maple leaf and all the emotions, the distinctive national and white flag of Canada, spoke of a nationalist agreement with many Canadians who have been seized by a movement “bought home” which brings together enthusiasm and momentum.
Carney, the former central banker who became a politician, was forced, of course, to respond to the dominant patriotic winds in the hope that they propel him as well as the Liberal Party to victory.
So, it was hardly surprising that the Minister of Defense, Bill Blair, announced at the end of last week that Ottawa “would re-examine” his contract with Lockheed Martin and are looking for European alternatives to the F-35 jets.
The “revision” of the existing agreement allowed Carney to claim “Canada First” and gave it time to consider the implications and possible consequences of cancellation.
At the risk of offending loyal readers and surprising my easily agitated detractors, I think that the predictable and in time gambit pretends, both, in the light of uncertain geopolitical circumstances, the prudent thing to do.
Let me share two other observations which are intended to provide a useful context for the prescriptions that I am about to offer Carney on the way in which this delicate and potentially combustible cross-border it should approach.
First, if I had my Druthers, I would give up acquiring war planes which, in about a generation, will become obsolete and will spend the mountain of money improving the youth prospects of young Canadians to buy a house on the horizon not so distant and to burn the derisory pension that the elderly receive each month.
But I know that any future liberal or conservative government will be dedicated – as an institutional skirmish – to replace the Canada aging list of CF -18 fighter planes.
The question now, in the light of Oafish threats and disrespectful of Trump, is who will be on the big check to provide these war planes?
Second, I doubt that Carney and his sleek cabinet will be influenced by my advice – if they read it at all. The ex-Chairman of the Banque of Canada has spent a large part of his career adjusting the strong noise, often ill-informed, produced by members of the Know-IT-All Commentariat, including me.
However, as it is an “opinion” column, here is my point of view on the way Carney should sail in the loaded dilemma that he faces.
I believe that Carney – and by extension, Canada – should keep our precious tokens nearby rather than going there.
Trump can enjoy a strong hand, but, despite his boastful and bravado, he is a bad poker player – inclined to make short -seen and impulsive bets that do more damage than good for American interests.
Carney must be patient and exploit the long game to its advantage using purchases awaiting the F-35 as a lever effect during ransom pricing negotiations which may well prevail throughout the chaotic mandate of Trump of four years as president.
As a necessary corollary, Carney needs to repel the writers and myopic historians demanding that he Nix, immediately, the F-35 in favor of the Saab Gripen built by the Swedish to appease his criticisms “died” inside and outside the Parliament and editorial advice more interested in “decisive” acts than the reproductive by parliament and the reflections.
Given Trump’s coercive modus and the impetuous nature, there is no guarantee that this more cautious approach will be persuasive or attenuates the president’s reward instincts.
It is worth trying. And, to strengthen the chances of success, it must be coupled with a deliberate and sustained effort to lower the rhetoric of the chest which is only used, to trigger a petulating president.
Then there is impracticability and prohibitive costs associated with the option for a mixed fleet of jets in the airborne arsenal of Canada.
According to statements, Canadian defense planners have insisted for decades that this cockery strategy is too expensive. Two war planes would require two training regimes, two supply chains and separate hangars.
Keep your Cheshire in the fridge and keep your schools of negative and expensive negotiation schools, Prime Minister Carney, until you, not capricious Trump, can win the lucrative pot.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.
