Why coup leader Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema is embracing democracy

A little more than 19 months after the bloodless coup which ended more than five decades of rule of the Bongo family, the inhabitants of Gabon are about to go to the ballot boxes to choose a new head of state – in Bucking a trend that has seen military leaders elsewhere in Africa hang on to power.

The crushing favorite of the race on Saturday is the man who directed this peaceful putch and dominated the political scene since then, Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema.

Having abandoned the fatigue of his soldier and military status in favor of the pursuit of a politician, this former very articulated commander of the Elite Republican Guard faces seven other candidates.

Basking in popularity within a relieved population to get rid of the dynastic rule – and helped by electoral regulations which disqualified certain key challengers – the 50 -year -old seems almost certain to obtain a pure and simple majority in the first ballot.

His campaign slogan – using his initials “c’on” – is a game on French words “it’s good”, which means “it’s good”.

His chances of avoiding a runoff of the second round are reinforced by the fact that his main challenger – one of the rare political or civil figures not to have rallied to his cause – is the last Prime Minister of the Old Regime, Alain -Claude Bilie -By Nze, known by his initials ACBBN.

The victory will bring a mandate of seven years and the resources aimed at implementing the development and modernization of the reform at a rate of which the leaders of the African countries of crisis-BESET could not even dream.

With only 2.5 million people, Gabon is an established oil producer and the second world manganese exporter.

Its territory, which is in caliphon on the equator, encompasses some of the most biodiversity routes in the tropical forest of the Congo basin.

And apart from a post-electoral repression lasts in the capital, Libreville, in 2016, the country experienced a mainly calm recent history which contrasts with the conflicts and the instability which have afflicted many regional neighbors.

Oligui Nguema and his republican guards met with no resistance when they seized the power on August 30, 2023, only a few hours after the electoral authorities went to the waves in the middle of the night to proclaim that the outgoing president, Ali Bongo Onimba, had obtained a third term of seven years with a 64%vote.

It was difficult to see this official result as credible. Ali Bongo, who succeeded his father Omar in 2009, had only cringed a narrow and very contested victory during the previous survey in 2016.

When he underwent a stroke by visiting Saudi Arabia two years later and embarked on a careful progressive recovery, there had been generalized popular sympathy.

But the atmosphere changed after having decided to stand up for a third term, despite his visibly fragile state of health – this widespread resentment fueled the supposed influence and the ambitions of his wife of French origin Sylvia and her son Nourredin Bongo Valentin.

The peaceful intervention of the military to prevent the continuation of the regime, arresting Sylvia and Nourredin and Confine Ali to forced retirement in his private villatriggered spontaneous celebrations among the many Gabonese people who have tired of this apparently motionless dynasty.

And the coup was greeted with relief even by most of the administrative, political and civil elite.

Oligui Nguema took a clever advantage, reaching out to build a large base of support for its transitional diet. He has introduced former government figures, opponents and eminent, so far critical civil society in the structure of power or institutions such as the named Senate.

Political detainees were released, although Ali Bongo’s wife and son remain in detention pending a trial for corruption.

He does not use the type of repression of dissent or media freedom which has become a routine tool for other French -speaking military leaders in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso and Niger.

On the diplomatic front, in marked contrast to the assisted anti-Western posture adopted by West African regimes, Oligui Nguma has sent high-level figures to cultivate the international good will and reassure traditional Gabon partners of its determination to restore the civil constitutional government in a closely limited period.

Relations with France, the old colonial power and previously a close ally of the Bongo regime, are warm.

The two governments recently agreed to transform the Gaulle camp, the long -standing French base in Gabon, into a new training center which they will operate jointly.

As a result of a skilful popular and political touch, Oligui Nguema responded to the hunger for public change with an acceleration of public works and delayed projects.

And at a time of the rise in popular support through French-speaking Africa for a more visibly assertive defense of national interests, its government has acquired Gabonese assets from several foreign oil companies, including the UK Tullow.

To alleviate the constraints on government finances, he borrowed on the regional money market, but also cleverly sought to reassure international partners.

A large part of the $ 520 million (461 million pounds sterling) collected by a Eurobond in February was used to reimburse the old debt, and the government has also reserved funds to erase certain arrears due to the World Bank.

But if, and almost certainly when, he was elected head of state of Gabon on Saturday, Oligui Nguema will face significant challenges.

This was the thirst for change of the public which, in many ways, the transition was the easy part. There was little public pressure forcing his freedom of maneuver.

There was a broad consensus on the prohibition of a prohibition of dynastic succession in the new Constitution.

When Oligui Nguema hung up the concern of certain parliamentarians concerning the concentration of executive power in the presidency by removing the post of Prime Minister, there was little noise.

But that means that, in the future, the total weight of the responsibility to meet the expectations of the public will fall only on his shoulders.

Eminent political and civil personalities, such as the veteran opponent Alexandre Barro-Chambrier and Rainforest Marc Ona Essui campaignjoined his transitional administration or his political machine, the collecting of builders (RDB), and may well occupy important roles after the election.

Nevertheless, the accent will be placed on Oligui Nguema himself. And he will face complex challenges.

Gabon has long positioned itself as a leader in the conservation of the tropical forest and its flora and its extremely diverse fauna, attracting international praise for its clever use of climate financing tools – in 2023, it became the first sub -Saharan country to finish a debt exchange for nature.

But this strategic approach must be reconciled with economic pressure to fully use other natural resources, in particular minerals and oil, and with the needs of rural communities seeking to protect their hunting and agriculture rights.

Urban populations, in particular in Libreville – are home to almost half of the country’s population – need more jobs and better services, in a country whose social development file has been disappointing, given its relative wealth.

The unionist Jean Rémy Yama, excluded from the presidential race because he could not produce the birth certificate of his father, a requirement of appointment, is a figure with considerable follow -up which could give voice to popular frustrations.

For Oligui Nguema, the most difficult work is about to start.

Paul Melly is a member of the council in the Africa program in Chatham House in London.