When Israel and Hamas accepted a six-week ceasefire in January, there was hope that it would evolve in a longer and more stable truce.
Now these hopes are decreasing.
The two parties accused each other of having broken the terms of the existing agreement, which enabled the exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners. During the weekend, Israel delayed the release of several hundred prisoners, protesting against the humiliating way in which Hamas had paraded hostages before putting them back.
With only days before the current break flows Sunday, the games have not yet started negotiations for an extension.
Steve Witkoff, the Middle East envoy for the Trump administration, said that he would return to the region on Wednesday to put pressure for a new truce.
Although a brief extension is possible, the probability of a long -term arrangement – preventing the renewal of fighting – seems distant.
Both parties have prerequisites that make it difficult to achieve permanent resolution. The leaders of Israel say that they will only end the war once Hamas will no longer exercise military and political power in Gaza. Hamas said it could give up certain civil responsibilities, but its leaders have largely rejected the idea of disarmament, at least in public.
Here’s how we got here and what could happen next.
What should happen?
The agreement concluded in the last days of the Biden administration allowed an initial truce of six weeks, which ends on March 1. The parties agreed to use this time to gradually exchange around 1,500 Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons for 33 hostages captured by Hamas and its allies during their raid which triggered the war in October 2023.
The two parties were supposed to use the six weeks to negotiate the conditions for a permanent truce that would have started on March 2. These negotiations were to focus on which should govern Gaza in post-war period, as well as the release of around 60 other hostages.
Although perforated by disturbances, most exchanges have been roughly planning. Negotiations for a second phase did not do so. They have not yet started seriously – even if, under the terms of the January agreement, they had to conclude last Sunday.
This failure is partly because, depending on the agreement, the truce can only officially go if the two parties agree to end the war. But Israel and Hamas have so different visions of a post-war Gaza that the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, did not even want to restart the talks.
Do Hamas and Israel want to restart war?
Weak and isolated, Hamas has avoided explicit calls for a resumption of hostilities, even if the group made war more likely by refusing to surrender.
On the other hand, Netanyahu declared directly Sunday that Israel was ready to resume the fighting if Hamas would not be voluntarily disarm. In a speech to the soldiers, Netanyahu said he was only open to negotiations on the terms of Hamas’ surrender.
Many Israelis want the Prime Minister to accept an prolonged truce in order to release the remaining hostages, even if this is at the expense of maintaining Hamas in power. But the allies of the right coalition of Mr. Netanyahu consider a defeat of Hamas as a greater national priority and pressed him to restart the conflict.
Is Israel for a new offensive?
The Israeli army has already made in -depth preparations for a new intense campaign in Gaza, according to three defense officials who spoke under the cover of anonymity to speak more freely.
Officials have said that new operations would include the targeting of Hamas officials who siphon assistance supplies for civilians, as well as the destruction of buildings and infrastructure used by the civil government managed by Hamas.
Although the plan has not yet been approved by the Israeli cabinet, two of the officials said they thought that only President Trump could dissuade Netanyahu from the renewed war.
What does President Trump want?
The president has made several competing requests in recent weeks, calling for variously to a sustained peace, a renewed war, as well as the expulsion of the two million residents of Gaza. The recent signal most of his administration was that he was looking for a temporary extension to the truce, perhaps involving some hostage exchanges for additional prison.
Sunday, Mr. Witkoff, the envoy of the Middle East of Mr. Trump, said In an interview with CNN, he would return to the region on Wednesday to extend the first phase of car. It later said CBS that he would spend five days to visit Egypt, Israel, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia to create a momentum to an extension. Witkoff also said that he thought it was possible to reach a longer agreement.
If there is no extension, will the fighting resume immediately?
Not necessarily. The initial agreement indicated that “the temporary judgment of hostilities” could be maintained beyond the deadline of March 1 as long as Israel and Hamas still negotiated the terms of a permanent ceasefire. This allows a room for maneuver: if the sides return to negotiations on a formal extension, the truce can technically continue even if the talks are far from a resolution.
However, there will be fewer railings to prevent the truce from collapsing. During the initial ceasefire, the parties were motivated to maintain the agreement through several crises, because each passing week allowed the exchange of more captives. This arrangement suited both Israel and Hamas – all the released hostages relieved the Israeli population, while the prestige of Hamas was reinforced among the Palestinians each time a prisoner was released.
These exchanges should end on Thursday, with the release of four other Israelis, most likely died captives, for several hundred Palestinians. Unless new exchanges are organized, Hamas and Israel will have fewer reasons to maintain the truce.
When is the biggest truce stress test?
There is a particular concern for what is happening after March 8.
In the January agreement, Israel agreed to withdraw its forces on that date from the Gaza-Egypt border. But Mr. Netanyahu explicitly declared last year that Israel would never withdraw from the region, known in Israel under the name of Corridor of Philadelphi, leading to predictions that he would break the terms of the ceasefire.
If these forces are not withdrawn, Israeli defense officials say they expect Hamas to be able to pull roquettes to Israel, giving Israel a pretext to retaliate.
Johnatan ReissContributed reports of Tel Aviv.
