By Ethan Wang and Joe Cash
BEIJING (Reuters) – Chinese exports likely grew at a faster pace in December, suggesting producers rushed to shift inventories to major markets as the U.S. president-elect’s return to the White House approaches Donald Trump this month and new business risks.
Overseas shipments are expected to have increased 7.3% in value year-on-year, according to the median forecast of 17 economists surveyed in a Reuters poll, up from a 6.7% expansion in November.
Imports in December likely fell 1.5%, following a 3.9% drop the previous month, indicating factory managers rushed to obtain technology products in anticipation of tighter export controls of semiconductors from the United States.
The data, due Monday, underscores the continued strength of China’s exports, even as the broader economy grapples with challenges such as a prolonged housing market slump and deflationary pressures.
Yet different views persist among China observers. JP Morgan forecast a 7.9% increase in exports, while Standard Chartered (OTC:) predicted slower growth of 5.4%.
Most economists polled by Reuters agree that imports remain in contraction for the third consecutive month, although Standard Chartered forecasts modest growth of 1.5%.
South Korea, a leading indicator of Chinese imports, reported an 8.6% increase in shipments to China in December.
Exports could remain resilient in early 2025 as exporters continue to focus at the start of the year, Barclays (LON:) According to research. Still, there is uncertainty over Trump’s tariff threats, which could trigger a trade war between the United States and China.
Trump, who has proposed 60% tariffs on Chinese imports, recently denied a news report that his team was considering scaling back tariff plans to cover only critical imports due to concerns about inflation.
Meanwhile, trade tensions with the European Union remained heightened, where EU tariffs of up to 45.3% on Chinese electric vehicles have strained relations.
Beijing responded by targeting European products such as brandy with anti-dumping investigations amid negotiations to cancel or reduce tariffs.
Economists have continued to call on China to rebalance its economy by shifting its reliance on investment and exports to consumption to avoid a prolonged period of low growth.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has promised “more proactive” policies to boost growth in 2025, while policymakers recently pledged to “vigorously” boost consumption and increase domestic demand.
Reuters reported that the government plans to maintain an economic growth target of around 5% this year.
China’s trade surplus in December is expected to reach $99.8 billion, up from $97.4 billion in November.
