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While waiting for the subway, I see a poster for a chain of high-end gyms. Locations? “City of London. High Street Kensington. Dubai. What a shame to choose a setting so disfigured by bad taste and clueless expatriates. Still, the City and Dubai branches must be top notch.
Shortly after, I am in Doha, and here again, the link between Europe and the Gulf is unavoidable. Qatar’s emir is returning from a state visit to Britain, where the hosts were seeking a trade deal. Fifa, whose headquarters is in Switzerland, has just granted the rights to organize the World Cup to Saudi Arabia. Even in skyscraper-free Muscat, where lanes that might have been streamlined elsewhere in the Gulf wind freely behind the corniche, three restaurants in my hotel are outposts of Mayfair brands.
What a shame that the word “Eurabia” is taken. And by such cranks. (It’s a far-right term for an alleged plot to Islamize Europe.) Because we’re going to need a word to describe this relationship. The Arabian Peninsula has what Europe lacks: space, natural wealth and the resulting budget surpluses to invest in things. For its part, Europe has “intangible” assets that the Gulf States must acquire, welcome or imitate to forge a post-oil role in the world. This is not the Gulf’s deepest external link. Not when 38% of the population of the United Arab Emirates and a quarter of Qatar are Indian. But it is perhaps the most symbiotic, if I understand that word correctly.
It is true that the United States has a military presence in all six Gulf Cooperation Council states. This includes the Saudi footprint which Osama bin Laden was not very happy about. But daily contact? America is a 15 hour flight away. Its intangible assets are either more difficult to purchase or less coveted. Its citizens have little fiscal incentive to live in tax havens, since Uncle Sam makes them pay at least part of the difference.
In the 1970s, as OPEC profits flooded London, Anthony Burgess wrote a dystopia in which big hotels became “al-Klaridges” and “al-Dorchester”. What a mental shock, even for the most worldly Europeans, to see – we must not indulge in this – non-white people with more money than them. Yet they might condescend to view the Gulf as a bad place to live. Half a century later, their grandchildren would call it copium. In fact, their grandchildren could literally live there for the economic opportunities. (Al-Dorado?) As a banker friend explains, time zones allow you to sleep late, trade on European markets, then dine late, so it’s the young people who stay in the Gulf, not the burnt ones. -outs who are my age. .
But for how long? It is the simple improbability of this meeting, between a culture of universal rights and a monarchical absolutism, between a predominantly secular continent and the native peninsula of an ancient faith, that sets it apart from anything I can think of. A relationship can be both necessary and untenable. It would not take much – for example violence within the GCC, which seemed close in 2017 – for Europe’s exposure to the Gulf to age as badly as its former openness to Russia. If Abu Dhabi-owned Manchester City are found to have engaged in financial chicanery, part of the Premier League’s history will be tainted. Because it’s just sports, I feel like people aren’t prepared for the negative reactions.
And it would be illusory to assume that the relationship could only break down on one side. It is the part of the Gulf that must make the most delicate cultural adjustments. Because Europeans associate 1979 with Iran and perhaps Margaret Thatcher, they sometimes overlook the storming of the Grand Mosque in Mecca by fanatics who thought the House of Saud had laxed on Western ways. . The governments of the region will certainly not forget this.
To what extent can a place liberalize without tripping over a cultural thread? This is a question (and the answer is different in) each state or emirate. Everyone is very nice to “Monsieur Janan” in his hotel in Doha. But the metal scanners that must be passed each time you enter the building are a reminder of the issues here. I wonder if Europe and the Gulf are investing so much in their link because they doubt it can last.
Email Janan at janan.ganesh@ft.com
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