President-elect Donald J. Trump refused Tuesday to rule out the use of military force to retake the Panama Canal, which the United States returned to that country’s control decades ago.
Last month, Mr. Trump falsely accused Panama of allowing Chinese soldiers to control the vital shipping route, which connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, and of overcharging U.S. ships.
He also claimed that Panama was charging “exorbitant prices” to American ships, and warned that if they are not reduced after he takes office next month, he will demand that the United States gain control of the canal ” completely, quickly and without doubt. »
Although it is unclear what motivated Mr. Trump’s recent obsession with the Panama Canal, some Republicans have long opposed a decades-old treaty that handed the shipping lane to Panamanian control . When Ronald Reagan ran for president, he declared that the people of the United States were the “rightful owners” of the canal and brought the audience to their feet with the phrase: “We bought it; we paid for it; we built it.
Who owns the Panama Canal?
After a failed attempt by the French to build a canal, it was finally built by the United States between 1904 and 1914. And the American government managed it for several decades.
The United States also played a role in the creation of the state of Panama. At the beginning of the 20th century, the Isthmus of Panama was part of Colombia. When Colombia rejected a proposed canal treaty, the U.S. government encouraged a rebellion. The northern provinces of Colombia eagerly seceded, forming the Republic of Panama. The U.S. Navy then prevented Colombian troops from suppressing the rebellion.
American control of the canal has created significant tensions with Panama. In 1964, anti-American riots broke out in the American-controlled Canal Zone.
The riots led to the renegotiation of the Panama Canal treaties. In 1977, U.S. President Jimmy Carter and Panamanian leader Omar Efraín Torrijos signed the Torrijos-Carter Treaties. THE agreements guaranteed the permanent neutrality of the Panama Canal. After a period of shared custody, the treaties called for the United States to relinquish control of the canal by the year 2000.
Panama took full control in 1999 and has operated the canal through the Panama Canal Authority ever since.
Mr. Carter, who died on December 29, always considered the treaties to be landmark achievements, and they figured prominently in his obituary.
“By a strange accident of timing, we now have a president who dreams of taking over the canal just as the world recognizes the transfer of the canal as an important part of a deceased president’s legacy,” said James Fallows, who was Mr. Carter’s speechwriter. at the time and accompanied the president on that trip to Panama in 1978.
How did Panama react?
In a reprimanding statement to Mr. Trump last month, President José Raúl Mulino of Panama wrote that “every square meter of the Panama Canal and its adjacent area belongs to PANAMA.”
Mr. Mulino also said that American ships are not overcharged. The rates charged to ships and warships, he insisted, are “not the result of a whim.”
Panamanian officials said all countries are subject to the same fees, although they differ depending on the size of the vessel. They are established in public meetings by the Panama Canal Authority and take into account market conditions, international competition, operation and maintenance costs, Mulino said.
However, prices have increased recently. Indeed, starting in 2023, Panama experienced a severe drought, caused by a combination of El Niño and climate change, which Mr. Trump called a hoax. With water levels in Lake Gatún, the canal’s main hydrological reserve, historically low, authorities have reduced navigation through the canal in order to conserve the lake’s fresh water.
A Trump spokeswoman said that because the United States was the canal’s largest user, the fee increase affected its ships the most.
What is China’s role in the Panama Canal?
Chinese soldiers are not “managing” the Panama Canal, as Mr. Trump claimed.
“There are no Chinese soldiers in the canal, for God’s sake,” Mr. Mulino said. in a speech Thursday. “The world is free to visit the canal.”
A Hong Kong-based company, CK Hutchison Holdings, manages two ports at the entrances to the canal. And some experts said it raises legitimate competition and security concerns for the United States.
Ryan C. Berg, director of the Americas program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, noted that CK Hutchison would likely have data on all ships transiting the Panama Canal. China uses its maritime and maritime operations to collect foreign intelligence and carry out espionage.
“China exercises, or could exercise, some element of control even in the absence of a military conflagration,” Mr. Berg said. “I think there is reason to be concerned.”
Mao Ning, spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said tuesday that China will “as always respect Panama’s sovereignty” over the Panama Canal.
China is the second largest user of the Panama Canal after the United States. In 2017, Panama severed diplomatic ties with Taiwan and recognized the island as part of China, a major victory for Beijing.
Can the United States reassert its control?
Not easily.
Mr. Mulino made it clear that the Panama Canal was not for sale. He noted that the treaties established the permanent neutrality of the canal and “guaranteed its open and safe operation for all nations.” And the Senate ratified the Panama Canal treaties in 1978.
Mick Mulvaney, Mr. Trump’s former chief of staff, suggested the provocations were simply part of a negotiating tactic aimed at lowering rates.
“You know, I don’t imagine that American troops would come in and retake the canal, but you have to think that someone is scratching their head wondering, ‘Is Donald Trump crazy enough to do something like that?’ “” Mr. Mulvaney said Tuesday on “The Hill” on NewsNation.
Mr. Berg said the neutrality agreement made it unlikely that Panama could even grant special tariffs to the United States. And, he noted, Mr. Mulino is “incredibly pro-American” and likely eager to help the incoming Trump administration address issues such as illegal immigration.
“President Mulino is going to be a great ally for the United States,” Mr. Berg said. “We shouldn’t want this to escalate into some sort of political fight because we’re going to need President Mulino on a number of other issues.”
But there is, as Mr. Trump has threatened, a military option. Mr. Trump could, as president, order an invasion of Panama. Under its constitution, Panama does not have an army. But experts on Tuesday dismissed Mr. Trump’s threat as futile intimidation.
“If the United States wanted to flout international law and act like Vladimir Putin, it could invade Panama and reclaim the canal,” said Benjamin Gaden, director of the Latin America program at the Wilson Center in Washington. “No one would consider this a legitimate act, and it would not only seriously damage their image, but also lead to instability of the canal.”
