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When JD Vance went on stage at the Munich security conference last week, he issued a severe warning. The US vice-president told politicians and diplomats united that freedom of expression and democracy were attacked by the European elites: “The threat that I am most vis-à-vis Europe is Not Russia, it’s not China, it’s. . . The threat of the interior.
If Vance hoped to persuade his audience, rather than insulting him simply, he failed. Indeed, his speech has turned spectacularly, convincing many listeners that America itself is now a threat to Europe. In the crowd outside the conference room, an eminent German politician told me: “It was a direct assault against European democracy.” A main diplomat said: “It’s very clear now, Europe is alone.” When I asked him if he considered the United States now as an opponent, he replied: “Yes.”
The most positive verdict I heard about the speech was that it was “childish bullshit”, but aimed at an American audience and therefore unknown in complete safety. But unpack the speech of Vance – and place it in the context of Donald Trump’s decision to hire Vladimir Putin, while putting the touch of Ukraine and Europe – and it becomes clear that the American culture wars , international security and European policy can no longer be untangled.
What Vance has done was to reverse the ideas of freedom, democracy and shared values that supported the Western alliance for 80 years. In his world, the battle for freedom in Europe no longer consists in dissuading an autocratic and aggressive Russia, as for Harry Truman or Ronald Reagan. The fight of Vance for Freedom is a battle is to save “Western civilization”, as defined by Elon Musk and others, twin threats of mass immigration and the “awakened spirit virus”.
The ideology of the Trump administration means that, in important respects, it now feels more affinity with Putin than Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Putin is considered a warrior who fights for his country and for conservative values; The Ukrainian is rejected as a freeloader with all bad friends in Europe.
The Trump administration considers the European far right as its true allies. By calling on the alternative part of Germany (AFD) to be welcomed to the government, Vance requests that Europe is transformed into a broader version of Hungary by Viktor Orbán – a soft autocracy with a weakness for Russia of Russia Poutine. It was revealing that in Munich, Vance found the time to meet Alice Weidel, the AFD co-leader, but not with Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
Before considering the implications for Europe of what Vance said, we must take a break to note his deep hypocrisy. Trump attempted to overthrow the American presidential election of 2020. And his vice-president presumes making the conference to Europeans on respect for democracy?
The arguments of Vance were “what leboutism” of classic Russian style – diverting the attention of the Trump administration’s assault against the democratic institutions of the United States and the imminent betrayal of Ukraine – with anecdotes on The alleged persecution of anti-abortion activists in Great Britain. That he believes that all of this is of purely psychological interest. It is the strategic implications for Europe that count.
Trump clearly intends to conclude an agreement on Ukraine with Putin on the heads of Zelenskyy and Europeans. This could have tragic consequences for Ukraine, which could soon be invited to accept the loss of territory without security guarantee for the future. The alternative would be to try to fight without American help.
The implications for the rest of Europe are also alarming. Putin wants NATO troops to be removed from the entire former Soviet Empire. European officials believe that Trump is likely to accept to withdraw American troops from the Balts and perhaps further west, leaving the EU vulnerable to a Russian army that NATO governments warn for a greater conflict Beyond Ukraine.
It is clear that the United States can no longer be considered a reliable ally for Europeans. But the political ambitions of the Trump administration for Europe mean that, for the moment, America is also an adversary – threatening democracy in Europe and even European territory, in the case of Greenland.
So what to do? Europeans must start to prepare quickly for the day when the American security guarantee for Europe is definitively removed. This must involve the construction of autonomous defense industries. This should also mean a European mutual defense pact, outside of NATO, which extends beyond the EU-include Great Britain, Norway and others.
Trump will use any lever effect he will have to force the American European allies to comply with questions of trade and security in their internal policy. This means that Europe must now begin the pains of “deactivating” its relationship with the United States, looking for dangerous dependence on America and withdrawing from the system.
Concede to the critical infrastructure in Musk would create enormous new vulnerability. The Trump administration will also exert enormous pressure on Europeans to buy more American weapons. In current circumstances, it would be madness.
Many Europeans will relieve these ideas, rejecting them as impossible. But they must understand that their freedom is now at stake. Vance was right about it. Quite simply not in the way he thought.
gideon.rachman@ft.com
