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The war in Sudan returned to the place where she ignited two years ago: in a battle for downtown Khartoum.
After days of clashes, the forces faithful to the de facto president abdel Fattah al-Burhan resumed the presidential palace on Friday of former allies in the paramilitary quick support forces. The army (SAF) has since seized other official buildings, including the Central Bank – marking a potential turning point in the war.
The reuptake of the presidential palace caps several months, which has become a momentum in the Civil War of Sudan, it decisively changed in favor of SAF. If the army can consolidate Khartoum control, this would allow Gen Burhan to install a transitional government and try to acquire broader international recognition.
But it is also a moment of great danger both for General Burhan and for Sudan, as a victory for the RSF this weekend in the western region of Darfur, underlined the risk of de facto score.
“The symbolic value and the political traction that the army can obtain from the retirement of the capital’s control is considerable,” said Suliman Baldo, an expert in conflict resolution who directs the reflection group on transparency and monitoring of Sudan policies.
The soldiers celebrated in front of the broken windows and the facades burned by explosions of bombs, testifying to the terrible toll that the fights took on the capital.
“There is nothing for people to come back, except the walls of their homes,” said Baldo.
The war broke out in 2023 in downtown Khartoum after a power struggle between the army and the RSF, whose chief Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemeti, was accused of genocide by the United States.
Before turning their weapons on each other, the two parties were united to overthrow the transitional government formed at the rear of a street revolution which ended three decades of rule by Omar Al-Bashir in 2019.
In the first months of the war, the army suffered its defeat after its defeat, possibly withdrawing from Port Sudan on the Red Sea. But since last September, he has taken over the area of territory and most of the capital.
The momentum has swung in favor of the army thanks to an alliance with the Islamist brigades which supported the Old Regime, the replenishment of heavy weapons and the infiltration of RSF parts, according to experts. The drop in morale of the RSF was also a factor.
“They managed to rearore themselves a lot, to restore their air force with Turkey drones, and Chinese and Russian fighter planes. At the same time, the RSF had a hard time maintaining the Emiratis supply lines and by Chad and Libya, “said Cameron Hudson, an expert in Africa and Africa program of the Washington Center for Strategic and International Studies program.
But the fight for Khartoum is not over. On Friday, an RSF counterattack cost an army spokesperson and other soldiers of the palace, while the resistance continues in certain parts of the south of the city.
Meanwhile, the RSF would have swept away an outpost of the desert in northern Darfur, cutting a supply line to the army allies in the besieged city of El Fasher and stressing how much there is to go before Sudan meets.
“If the army regains control of all Khartoum, it is not necessarily good for the future of Sudan because it does not care about Darfur,” said Nour Babiker, an exiled politician of the Moderate Sudanese Congress Party.
He was referring to the concerns that the army, once in control of the capital, could be reluctant or unable to continue the fight of the provinces in the West. With Khartoum in hand, the SAF incitement to negotiate could also decrease, increasing the risk for the country to remain divided.
It is also a moment of great danger for civilians. More than 12 minutes from the population of 50 million Sudan were moved by war and, in certain regions, the famine has taken root.
Atrocities were committed by both sides. In recent months, the SAF allies and its militias have been accused of ethnically targeted murders in the recaptured areas. The RSF, born of the Arab militias “Janjaweed” accused of war crimes in the previous wars of Darfur, demanded a terrible assessment when they withdrew.
“It is their scheme of exact compensation on the populations when they retire,” said Hudson.
General Burhan’s immediate challenge is to start restoring order and services to a city that has been stripped and guarantee the supply of food, water and other provisions while the displaced residents are starting to return.
Another dilemma is how to gain the international support necessary for reconstruction while holding all the disparate forces under its banner. The recent victories of Burhan were stifled by Islamist supporters of the hard line of the old regime, which retains the support of certain parts of the population.
But neither the Western governments, nor the Egyptian and Saudi allies of SAF in the Middle East, want to see their return to government. Ostracize them, however, could cause a powerful reaction.
“I do not expect them to collapse now because the war is not yet over,” said Baldo. “But it’s just a matter of time.”
Cleve Jones cartography
