Hopes for Iran nuclear talks tempered by threats and mixed messages

While Iran and the United States have a second cycle of nuclear talks with high stakes in Rome, hopes of de-escalation are tempered by mounting military threats and mixed messages.

US President Donald Trump reminds Tehran almost every day of his options: an agreement or a war.

He previously declared that Israel would lead a military response if the talks failed.

On Wednesday, the New York Times reported that Trump had “emineed” an Israeli plan to hit Iranian nuclear sites next month.

“I wouldn’t say that I am not doing a blow.

“I think Iran has a chance to have a big country and live happily without death … This is my first option. If there is a second option, I think it would be very bad for Iran.”

After the two parties described the first series of talks in Oman last weekend as constructive, Trump said that he “would make a decision on Iran very quickly”.

In 2018, Trump withdrew the United States from a 2015 agreement which saw Iran limit its nuclear activities and allow inspections of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in exchange for sanctions relief.

He said it had done too little to stop Iran’s potential path to a nuclear weapon and restored American sanctions as part of a “maximum pressure” campaign to force Iran to negotiate a new agreement.

However, Iran has refused and violated more and more restrictions on reprisals. He has now stored enough uranium highly enriched to make several bombs if he chooses it – something he says would never do.

The threat of military action seems to have played a role in the return of Iran to the negotiating table. However, this insists that this is not the reason.

The supreme chief’s website, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said that Iran had accepted talks only because the United States has limited its strictly requirements to nuclear problems – and not for fear of Israeli and Israeli strikes.

Even thus, reaching an agreement remains far from certain.

Trump’s special envoy in the Middle East Steve Witkoff, who heads the American negotiation team, posted on X Tuesday: “Any final arrangement must define a framework of peace, stability and prosperity in the Middle East-which means that Iran must stop and eliminate its program of enrichment and nuclear armaments.”

It came one day after suggesting in an interview with Fox News that Iran would be authorized to continue to enrich uranium.

“They do not need to enrich 3.67%,” he said, referring to the limit set by the 2015 nuclear agreement.

“This will be a large part of the enrichment program verification, then ultimately the armament verification.”

The Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi, the head of the Iranian delegation, replied by noting that Witkoff’s “contradictory statements” and stressing that “real positions will be clearly indicated at the negotiating table”.

“We are ready to strengthen confidence in the possible concerns about the enrichment of Iran, but the principle of enrichment is not negotiable,” he said.

Saturdays on Saturday in Rome come in the middle of a wave of diplomatic activities.

The Minister of Defense of Saudi Arabia, Prince Khalid Bin Salman, went to Tehran on Thursday, transmitting a personal message from his father King Salman to Ayatollah Khamenei. He also met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Iran has warned that any American military action would meet with reprisals against the American bases of the region – many of them organized by the Iranian Arab neighbors.

At the same time, Araghchi visited Moscow and delivered a letter from Khamenei to the Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Iran and Russia have strengthened their military ties since the start of the war in Ukraine, Tehran accused of having provided drones to support the war effort of Moscow.

The Russian Parliament has ratified a 20 -year strategic partnership between Iran and Russia 10 days ago. However, the agreement does not include a mutual defense clause.

Meanwhile, the head of the IAEA, Rafael Grossi, finished a two -day visit to Tehran this week, meeting Iranian nuclear officials and the Minister of Foreign Affairs in order to facilitate tensions and restore inspection protocols.

Since Trump has returned to power this year, Ayatollah Khamenei has constantly denounced negotiations with Washington.

“Negotiation with this administration is not logical, not wise or honorable,” he said in a February speech, just two months before accepting the current series of talks.

The distrust of the supreme leader stems from the withdrawal of Trump from the nuclear agreement, the “maximum pressure” campaign that followed and the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani in an American strike in Iraq in 2020.

Ayatollah Khamenei expressed his satisfaction with the first series of talks, saying that it was “well implemented”.

But he warned that he was “neither too optimistic nor too pessimistic”.

He also warned that Iran retaliated in case of strikes on its nuclear program.

Some officials, including his advisor Ali Larijani, even said that Iran could be “forced” to acquire a nuclear weapon if it was attacked.

“We do not continue weapons, and we have no problem with the surveillance of IAEA – even indefinitely. But if you use bombing, Iran will have no choice but to reconsider. It is not in your interest,” Larijani told State TV earlier this month.

Each party pushes its own story on how talks are underway.

The United States says it is direct. Iran says indirect and that the mediator by exchanging written notes.

After the first round in Muscat, Araghchi admitted that he had a brief exchange with Witkoff “by diplomatic courtesy” after crossing the paths.

The website of American news Axios, citing sources, reported that the two chief negotiators have spoken of up to 45 minutes.

Tehran prefers secret. Washington is looking for advertising.

After the two parties have published positive declarations on the first round, Iran currency jumped by 20%.

Iran’s management is well aware of the public’s dissatisfaction on the country’s hard economic conditions – and the potential for protests it can trigger.

For the Islamic Republic, fear is not only bombs – they are also manifestations.