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Like Donald Trump, the EU is proud of his mastery of the art of agreement. Brussels’ event is a summit that ends at three in the morning, with tired negotiators emerging with a new complex agreement.
The way of doing the EU of the agreement is almost the precise opposite of the style of the White House. The American president is impulsive and fast, made extreme requests and is willing to break all the rules. Europeans are legalistic, methodical and are constantly looking for compromises and compromises.
The Trump style is more flashy and makes better titles. The EU is deadly but much more efficient.
The question of what type of transmission – Brussels boredom or the chaos of Mar -A -Lago – works better is more than a question of pride. The future of the global economy could hang on to it. The EU and the United States are currently trying to conclude new commercial offers. They also need to settle their own differences before early July, when the 90 -day Trump break on its “reciprocal” prices with the EU should run out.
The EU-US trade relationship in goods is considerably greater than the flow between the United States and China. And the transatlantic trade in services is also much more intense.
The American prices on EU products are currently at 10%. But they should reach 20% in July. The EU is also harshly struck by American prices of 25% on cars, steel and aluminum, with the threat of additional prices for pharmaceutical products.
With so much play, the European Commission does everything possible to undress its commercial battle with the Trump administration – and to avoid transforming it into an ideological struggle or an essay of strength.
But the bureaucrats of Brussels found features with their Washington counterparts. One of the biggest problems is that it is not clear which in the Trump administration has real authority to negotiate.
Europeans offer to buy more American products, but they cannot accept permanent prices at current levels. Some in Brussels fear that, in July, the Trump administration simply extended the current regime of 90 days of additional negotiation.
At this point, the EU will have decisions to make. Does this finally retaliate and at what level? The general hypothesis is that Europeans will feel obliged to retaliate. The following question is whether reprisals will be limited to the goods trade, where the EU has more to lose and its automotive industry is particularly vulnerable.
American technological companies are a much juicy target than manufacturers of Harley-Davidsons or Bourbon. But Brussels mandarins must also consider the possibility that the Trump administration responds to technological sanctions asymmetrically by removing American troops from Europe. This would make Europe much more vulnerable to Russian aggression.
Given these unattractive options – and the unpredictability of the White House – Europeans do what comes naturally: take their time and move cautiously. A little over a month has passed since the prices of Trump’s “release day” were announced and a huge amount has already changed. The only safe bet is that there will be many more troubles over the next 60 days.
Like the Chinese, Europeans are waiting to see if the gaps are starting to appear on the shelves of American supermarkets. They also know that the potential prices on pharmaceutical products, although very painful for Europe, could trigger a reaction in the United States while essential drugs are increasing at prices.
The best of cases for Europeans is that the contradictions and self -control of Trump prices are becoming more and more obvious in the perspective of July, which led Europe to offer a much better deal than it currently seems likely.
The European Commission is determined not to allow all its negotiation energy to be sucked in by a limitation of damage to the United States. A consequence of Trump’s world tariff war is that there is a significant increase in countries wishing to negotiate trade agreements with the EU.
Piyush Goyal, the Indian Minister of Commerce, was in Brussels last week. A new agreement is likely to be signed between the United Kingdom and the EU later this month-eliminating some of the most difficult problems left by Brexit. The United Arab Emirates opened free trade negotiations with the EU a few weeks ago. Trade discussions with Australia, for a long time, have restarted. An agreement with the Mercosur block in Latin America has already been agreed and awaits ratification. China also wants to warm trade relations with Brussels – although Europeans will proceed with caution.
Countries that beat their way to Brussels will find the slow and bureaucratic movement of the EU. An agreement that Trump would aim to overcome the line in a few weeks will take years to accomplish with the EU. On the other hand, as an Australian commercial negotiator says: “The right thing about the EU is that if you end up making an agreement with them, you know they will stick.”
The EU already has agreed About twice as much free trade chords as The United States And is well placed to conclude more. The art of Brussels of the agreement has its own particularities and frustrations. But it is considerably more serious and lasting than the Trump version.
gideon.rachman@ft.com
