After Trump’s historic Iran-Israel truce, do ceasefires really bring peace?

President Donald Trump negotiated a historic ceasefire between Israel and Iran on Monday, marking a dramatic break in the most important military confrontation between the two enemies.

The announcement on Monday evening came into force 12 hours later, following a calendar designed to allow final military maneuvers on both sides. However, a dam of Iranian missile fire in the hours that have left many Israelis wondering if the truce had already been raped.

In an interview with Fox News Digital, John Spencer, Executive Director of Urban Warfare Institute, said that such a delayed implementation was not unusual. “It is difficult to deactivate things on a switch. You have flight planes. You have strengths in position,” he said.

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Spencer described the American operation as a history.

“What is historic is that the United States has carried out a limited operation on nuclear targets without losses – no pilot, no equipment – and helped Israel in a way that only America could. Nuclear proliferation is not partisan, and it was an apolitical victory.” Even after Iran struck an American base in Qatar, he added: “The president showed immense restraint and focused on the wider goal: to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and pursuing its terrorist campaign.”

Despite the violence that followed the announcement – including an Iranian strike which killed four civilians in Israel – Spencer thinks that the ceasefire that will hold. “The two countries have now said that we are going to do it,” he said. “And yes, President Trump is very atypical in the way he communicates with the ceasefire … with the” do not drop a single bomb “.

To understand how ceasements of cessions like this leaflet, Spencer underlined five previous historical historical marked by a delayed activation, progressive goals and a final window for military positioning.

An Israeli fighter plane takes off to launch air strikes against Houthis in Yemen. (IDF)

Armistice of the Korean War (1953)

Signed on July 27, 1953, the armistice which ended the Korean War was structured with a deliberate period of 12 hours before taking effect. “This allowed final military movements before a synchronized judgment,” said Spencer-a model that the cease-fire Israel-Iran is echoing closely.

A group of visits visits the Korean War Memorial on the day of veterans in Washington, DC

Yom Kippur war ceasefire (1973)

The Israeli Minister of Defense, Moshe Dajan, left, with General Sharon, General Sharon, then-Majeur, on the Egyptian side of the Suez Canal during the 4th Israeli-Arab war on October 18, 1973. (Photo of Upi / Picture Alliance via Getty Images)

Spencer noted that in 1973, Israel used the last hours before an unorrified ceasefire to reposition forces. “Israel has made a lot of movements in recent hours … to include the third army, moving to the city of Suez,” he said, referring to his case study on the battle of Suez City.

Trump announces a historic agreement of Iran and the ceasefire of Israel to put an end to the “day war”

Dayton Accords (1995)

A Bosnian woman walks among the tombstones at the Memorial Center Potocari near Srebrenica, Bosnia and Herzegovina on March 20, 2016. (AP photo / Amel Emric)

A end in terms of Bosnian war, the Dayton Broked peace accords have established a progressive calendar for the withdrawals of troops and political agreements. “It was a no, several countries that signed an agreement of what the two parties would not do and would not do,” said Spencer, the contrasting with the more loose terms of the current Israel-Iran-Iran.

Cesinefires Israel-Hamas (2014)

The smoke rises above the buildings northeast of Gaza City after a missile from Gaza landed short of its objective on August 21, 2014. (Roberto Schmidt / AFP via the Getty image)

Spencer also brought parallels to the 2014 war in Gaza. “Hamas said:” Okay, we want a ceasefire … until the next time they break the ceasefire “,” he said. Many of these agreements had activation delays from 12 to 72 hours, similar to what is now seen with Iran.

Ukraine-Russia cease-fire of proposals

The soldiers of the 93rd mechanized brigade of Ukraine derive a heavy French mortar MO-201-20-RT on the Russian forces on the front line near the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region of Ukraine on Wednesday, May 22, 2024. (Iryna Rybakova via AP)

Even more recently, during the current war in Russia-Ukraine, the ceases were often brief and symbolic. “Putin said:” I want three days to make my parade “,” said Spencer, stressing how temporary breaks can meet strategic and political needs.

While the past cease-fire was designed to slow down the climbing, Spencer considers it as part of a broader strategic doctrine. “To help Israel in a way that only the United States could, it should be non-supporter,” he said. “For the United States to do a very limited operation, without a single American loss of life … It’s unique.”

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The rescuers work on the scene of an explosion after an Israeli strike in Tehran, Iran, Friday, June 13, 2025. (Iranian Red Crescent Society via AP)

Spencer described the ceasefire as “a ramp out of ramp” for both sides. “The ceasefire here means that the two parties will stop shooting it.” But operations and hostilities have stopped. “

Despite the lack of formal terms or international application, Spencer considers that the agreement has created a new precedent. “This has established a new doctrine,” he said, citing Israel’s ability to dominate the Iranian sky and the American response to nuclear proliferation threats. “If Iran decides to rebuild certain sites somewhere, threats will be more present than ever.”

Spencer concluded: “It’s a victory. When the red lines are really red lines, they are effective in dissuading.”