As US President Donald Trump announces plans to withdraw from various international organizations and agreements, China is positioning itself as a global leader and seizing the opportunity to fill the void left by the US on the world stage, say analysts.
On his first day in office after Monday’s inauguration, Trump signed executive orders that began the process of withdrawing from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change, as he did during his first term.
The Republican president’s actions call into question the future of global public health responses and climate goals, and leave a leadership vacuum that China could attempt to fill.
“This creates potential for China to further strengthen its influence in the world’s multilateral institutions and help govern the world,” said Gregory Chin, an associate professor of political economy at York University in Toronto.
In fact, China already appears to be sending these signals.
China’s message
In what could be considered a strategic meeting, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke via video just hours after Trump’s inauguration, underscoring their continued alliance.
“I am ready to work with you to continue to guide China-Russia relations to a new high in 2025, so as to respond to external uncertainties,” Xi reportedly told Putin.
The Chinese leader said he wanted to “uphold international fairness and justice.”
Meanwhile, Chinese officials echoed that message Tuesday at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, touting the country’s commitment to fighting climate change.
“China has always been a staunch supporter of true multilateralism,” Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang said, adding that the country “firmly upholds the international system… and firmly upholds the international order based on international law.” .
In terms of “peace and security,” Ding said “China has the best record among the world’s major powers.”
Also on Tuesday, at a press conference in Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun reiterated China’s concern over the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.
“Climate change is a common challenge facing all humanity,” he said. “China’s determination and actions to actively respond to climate change are consistent.”
During Tump’s first term, the United States also withdrew from several international agreements, including the Paris Agreement on climate change, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and the United Nations Human Rights Council.
It seems he continues on the same path.
When Trump won the presidential election against Kamala Harris, the Democratic vice president, in November, Jia Wang, a senior fellow and senior advisor at the China Institute at the University of Alberta in Edmonton, told CBC News that China could capitalize on the situation.
“China could use this opportunity to make more friends or at least reduce its rivals and enemies,” she said.
The cost of development
While the United States turns inward and the new president praises the beginning of “America’s golden age” and the end of its “decline,” China is asserting itself.
“Inadvertently, the Trump administration could weaken America’s position in the world relative to China,” said York University’s Chin.
At least on the climate front, China positions itself as a green leader For years, it has undertaken initiatives aimed at achieving its goal of carbon neutrality by 2060, including investing in renewable energy and being a world leader in electric vehicles and batteries. And this, even though it remains the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world, responsible for a third of global emissions.
But this positioning, as strategic as it may be, is the result of necessity, said Yongjing Zhang, associate professor of economics and politics at the University of Ottawa.
“China really cares about climate change,” Zhang said, adding that the country was now suffering the “cost” of its rapid development. “No matter what happens to other countries, China [address it]”.
In other words, he has no choice.
Global health security
On Tuesday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo also expressed strong support for the World Health Organization following Trump’s announcement, saying China “will, as always, support the WHO in the discharge of its duty, by deepening international cooperation in matters of public health”.
Trump accused the institution, a United Nations agency, of being biased against China and criticized its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic – as he did during his first term in office , when he also decided to extract the American Joe Biden, who succeeded Trump. as president after his first term, later reversed his decision.
However, China’s future role in health is more unclear, despite its messages. The United States is by far the agency’s largest funder, representing approximately 18 percent of its overall funding. The most recent WHO budget for 2024-2025 was US$6.8 billion.
It is not yet clear how this financial gap would be filled, as experts have warned the move could weaken global public health security and weaken the world’s defenses against future pandemics and infectious diseases.
Being allies “no longer means anything”
What is emerging early in Trump’s presidency is an indication that U.S. allies are increasingly concerned about what a more confident Trump in his second term would mean, given his unpredictability.
“We have to throw the terms of friendship and allies out the window,” said Lynette Ong, a distinguished professor of Chinese politics at the University of Toronto. “That doesn’t mean anything now.”
Ong said that while China may well be assertive, she would like to see more evidence of how the country is putting its words into action.
But Chin, of York University, believes that US isolationism will eventually mean that other countries will face a decision under the alliance system.
“It’s a choice between aligning with America moving forward or with a multipolar set of options,” he said.
These options, Chin said, could include the BRICS countrieswhich includes China and Russia.
US President Donald Trump will not impose promised tariffs on Canada, Mexico or China on his first day in office, according to several US reports, giving that country a reprieve, at least for now.
“If you are in the West, you might see this as a threat to the so-called rules-based international order,” he said. “But if you’re in the rest of the world, you might argue that some of these changes might actually be improvements.”
Like Trump threatens higher tariffs for countries like China, Canada and Mexico, China reduced customs duties on hundreds of goods this month upon arriving in the country. And whatever the motivation, Chin suggests it may be just one reason why other countries might strengthen their relations with the country while the United States distances itself.
