The best diplomats of the European Union should meet on January 27 to discuss the relaxation of sanctions against Syria to relaunch the economy in difficulty of the country in the questions on the political leadership that the new administration of the torn nation by war could take.
When EU foreign ministers meet, the specific sanctions they consider imply travel restrictions, Syrian oil and gas exports and access to infrastructure and humanitarian aid, in addition to The gradual abolition of restrictions on financial transactions, two European diplomatic sources with knowledge of the ongoing discussion in Brussels said in Al Jazeera.
Earlier in January, the United States has attenuated certain restrictions for six months to facilitate the flow of humanitarian aid, certain energy sales and personal funds to Syria.
The EU is thinking about its own decision. In recent weeks, a wave of EU officials presented itself in Damascus to show Support for the new interim government led by members of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), the rebel group which overthrew Bashar al-Assad. The UN imposed sanctions on the group in 2014 because of its links with Al-Qaeda. And in 2018, the United States and the EU appointed HTS as a “terrorist” organization.
But even when trying with Ahmed Al-Sharaa, the acting chief of Syria, EU leaders have issued warnings: they want the new Syrian direction forms an inclusive government that respects human rights and minorities.
The block of 27 members is wary of the management that Al-Sharaa could take. “It does not seem that there have been indisputable indications that everything has changed,” said one of the two diplomats, referring to the bad HTS files in human rights. In 2020, the EU condemned the “systematic practice” of HTS to torture and murder of civilians living in areas under its control and declared that the actions of the group could constitute war crimes or crimes against humanity .
The worst scenario would be to remove the sanctions, then see the new administration imposing restrictions on the rights of women or minorities, added the diplomat.
Al-Sharaa joined Al-Qaeda in Iraq in 2003 and then established the branch of the armed group in Syria, known as Jabhat al-Nusra. He broke the links with Al-Qaeda and joined other factions to rename the HT in 2017. Before the lightning offensive which ended the al-Assad regime in December, the group controlled The northwest region of the country of Idlib, where it was estimated to have up to 30,000 fighters.
The Syrian chief has repeatedly disowned extremism. He also sought to present a moderate image promising to inaugurate an inclusive government. To convince the Western powers to raise sanctions is essential to the success of the new government, because the initial euphoria which followed the fall of al-Assad could open the way to frustration and violence if economic relief does not come enough enough Quick, according to experts.
It is estimated that 90% of the Syrian population lives in poverty. The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) amounts to less than $ 9 billion today, compared to $ 60 billion in 2010. Most areas only receive two to three hours a day of electricity provided by the ‘State. The new administration lacks resources to combat intimidating tasks – of the payment of civil servants and the reconstruction of whole cities reduced in rubber on the installation of a roadmap to the elections and to the heat guarantee during the ‘winter.
“It is easy to fail the test – so many reasons why things are wrong,” said Sultan Barakat, professor of public policy at the University of Qatar Hamad Bin Khalifa.
Barakat argued that sanctions that directly hinder the country’s ability to rebuild – such as those affecting the diaspora to invest in the production sector to those on a trip – should be deleted immediately and without any condition. The EU could discuss restrictions on individuals or HT at a later stage.
“We can only judge by what they [the al-Sharaa-led administration] to say and what they say is good – now they [Western governments] Can help materialize what they say in action or they can be suspect and create obstacles for them, “he said.
After Russia and Iran, Syria is the world third country with the greatest number of sanctions. In the 1970s, the United States added the country to the list of states sponsoring “terrorism” on its occupation in eastern Lebanon. Several other waves of restrictions-both in the United States and the EU-were imposed in the following decades, including for the support of Al-Assad in Hezbollah and its brutal repression of pro-democracy demonstrations in 2011 which were followed by more than 13 years of war.
Among the most debilitating sanctions is the Caesar Act imposed in the United States in 2019, which has effectively prohibited private states and businesses from doing business with the government of al-Assad. The EU has imposed sanctions on exports and imports, infrastructure projects and financial support for trade.
Without fully deleting restrictions on the energy sector and financial transactions – in addition to sending personal funds – waiver in the United States and EU proposal for sectoral sanctions could prove to be inadequate for the new Administration to guarantee stability and attracting private investors, said Samir Aita, a Syrian economist and president of the circle of Arab economists based in France.
“You have to speed up the process,” said Aita. “If there is no functioning of the Syrian State and its institutions and that only NGOs can act, they will eventually replace the State,” he said. The Central Bank being still under sanction, the country is likely to transform itself into “a cash economy” which could result in uncontrolled flows of money to reach different groups and militias, “and that means chaos”, -It added.
Europe would find itself directly affected by such destabilization. “The EU was in the direct line of the fire of the Syrian conflict in terms of migration, terrorism and broader instability, there is therefore a clear interest in seeing a stabilized Syria going forward”, Julien Barnes -Dacey, director of the Middle East program to the European Council on foreign relations.
More than a million Syrians have sought refuge in Europe since the start of the war. And with anti-migrant feelings that rose through the block, certain European governments committed to creating economic conditions so that refugees return home could prove to be a beneficial electoral blow.
But political commitment has not been equaled by any significant material step to support the transition until now, said Barnes-Dacey. “There is a real risk that if they wait too long, the conditions of deterioration will know the prospects of the transition they want to see delivered,” he added.
