The initial plan of Vladimir Putin to capture Ukraine in a few days ended with a disaster. But after Donald Trump organized direct peace talks with Moscow, bypassing kyiv and the European allies, the Russian president is now closer than ever to what he wanted for his three -year invasion.
Putin’s main ambition, said that people who had spoken to him during the war is to establish a new security architecture that gives Russia a sphere of influence in Europe – as the Yalta conference did For the Soviet Union at the end of the Second World War.
Now the United States can be open to letting it have it. The defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, rejected Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO and recover its territory from Russia. Putin and Trump discussed “bilateral economic cooperation”, suggesting that the United States was ready to withdraw its sanctions against Moscow.
And Trump seems determined to retreat the commitment of the United States to NATO and to leave in European countries the work of peacekeeping.
“The situation seems much more favorable to Putin than in any time throughout the war in the past three years,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin. “If the United States unilaterally ends its military and diplomatic support, as well as intelligence, Ukraine will be in a very difficult position. And it will be difficult to get out of it even if Europeans get more involved. »»
In Moscow, there was palpable joy after Wednesday’s call between Trump and Putin.
“A single call can change the course of history-today, the leaders of the United States and Russia may have opened a door to a future shaped by cooperation, and not on the confrontation,” said Declared Kirill Dmitriev, a Russian sovereign leader involved in the backs from back to back with the United States on prisoner exchanges.
The call marked a dramatic subject about American policy under Joe Biden, the predecessor of Trump, who undertook to support Ukraine during “as long as it takes” while working with other Western countries for isolate Russia. Now, the United States has said that the victory over Ukraine’s terms is not “realistic” – a change that Moscow has greeted as a return to reason.
“Finally, the Americans take things seriously without the unnecessary illusions they have nourished in the Ukrainians since the start of the war. It’s common sense. And a chance to stop the war, “said a former high Russian official.
“Putin got rid of all three -day illusion”, when Russia realized that her plans for a blitzkrieg victory had failed, added the former official. “But Europeans and Americans have been under them since, and they are starting to see the meaning now.”
High Ukrainian and Western officials have declared that Trump and Putin would probably try to guarantee a cease-fire by one of the two important dates: Easter, that the Orthodox and Catholic churches both celebrate on April 20 of this year ; Or on May 9, when Russia celebrates Soviet victory over Nazi Germany.
“Poutine will want [a deal] A notable day like this, ”said a Ukrainian official.
The Kremlin said Thursday that Putin would welcome Trump in Moscow for the May 9 festivities. The two leaders launched Saudi Arabia as a potential place for their next meeting.
In Moscow, the markets reacted with Glee. The ruble has reinforced 5% compared to the dollar and the Moscow main exchange index increased by 2.8% to its highest level in nine months.
The Hardliners Pro-War praised the call as a sign that Russia’s victory was at hand.
“It must really hurt the EU and Ukraine to hear this. But their opinion no longer matters, “said Konstantin Malofeyev, a conservative magnate that directs several Russian volunteer units who are fighting in Ukraine. “Ukraine is only the pretext of a great dialogue between two major countries on the start of a new era of human history.”
Putin told Trump that he wanted to “settle the reasons for the conflict”, indicating that Russia had not abandoned his objective to stop Ukraine’s ambitions to join the West and make the order of cold post-war security.
Moscow also requires Ukraine to give up control over four southeast regions, of which Russia fully controls, and expects the West to raise all the sanctions imposed since 2014.
“The most important thing for Russia is that Ukraine has the lowest possible security guarantees,” said Gabuev. “Ideally, they want Ukraine to remain a country without investment potential as low as possible and tear itself internally.”
Given that Russia holds the upper hand on the battlefield, Putin could choose to continue the war if Trump does not accept all his requests, said Dmitry Trenin, research teacher at the Moscow Higher School of Economy.
“Russia is serious about the need to solve the problem of Ukraine. He does not continue for peace. He knows that the only guarantees on which he can count are those he can provide herself, “said Trenin. “An agreement that does not become Russia’s vital security requirements would only guarantee that there will be another war soon. Russia will not allow it. »»
He added: “The fights will not stop with the start of the talks; And if there is no agreement, it will continue. »»
Ukraine and its European allies are shocked by Trump’s eagerness to welcome Putin.
“Why do we give [Russia] Everything they want even before the negotiations started? Asked the head of the EU foreign policy Kaja Kallas.
A European official said: “It is quite extraordinary that the president has chosen to play his hand like that. I do not think that there remains the negotiation position – he has established everything. »»
But any type of full agreement will always require significant contributions from members of NATO and Ukraine. “On thorny background issues, it is too early to say what Trump is willing and capable of giving,” said Samuel Charap, principal political scientist at Rand. “He will need Ukraine and allies on board for these and related problems.”
The delegation that Trump has appointed to negotiate with Russia does not include his own envoy to the conflict, Keith Kellogg, who had been the most frank American civil servant to increase the pressure of sanctions on Moscow and maintain the supply in arms in arms in Ukraine.
“This suggests that the administration will not take the main concerns of Ukraine seriously,” said a former senior American official. “Putin would have seen this as an approval of her world vision and a step towards the realization of her dream of having a really deep friction between the United States and Europe.”
Trump’s desire to end the war quickly blinded Kyiv. A person close to Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Financial Times that the Ukrainian president was not aware of Trump’s call with Putin until the American president called kyiv.
Zelenskyy told journalists on Thursday that he was “not very pleasant” to know that Trump first spoke of the opponent of Ukraine. He insisted that he “will not accept. . . Any bilateral negotiations on Ukraine without us ”.
What was imperative, added Zelenskyy, was “not to allow everything to leave according to Putin’s plan”.
Kyiv had hoped that he could convince Trump to determine a common position to bring Russia to the table, and had offered access to his rare land metals in exchange for American support.
For the moment, Kyiv and its European allies are looking at, from the outside, fearing that the United States will conclude an unfavorable agreement with Putin to end the war – and stick them with the bill.
“Trump is as bad as we fear. He is ready to conclude an agreement with Putin at the expense of Ukraine and always wants Ukraine to pay him for mineral resources, “said Volodymyr Kulyk, professor of political science at the kyiv School of Economics. “The question is what Ukraine and Europe will do.”
Additional Polina Ivanova reporting in Berlin, Lucy Fisher and Daria Mosolova in London and Henry Foy in Brussels
