Can Europe and UK persuade Trump they’re relevant to Ukraine’s future?

The leaders of Europe rush. Their security summit has in a hurry in Paris on Monday is proof.

They are still in shock not to be invited by the United States to talks with Russia on the future of Ukraine. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he could meet Russian president Vladimir Putin “very soon”.

Europe, under pressure, has it apart from political differences and internal economic concerns, and develop a united front on security spending and for the future of Ukraine, including potentially send there TROUNS – To force a place at the negotiating table?

They will try.

British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said on Monday morning said the United Kingdom was “ready and willing to put troops on the ground”. Even in Germany, before an animated election, the spokesperson for the foreign policy of the CDU, should win the largest number of seats, said that the largest European country would also be willing to commit troops in A “peacekeeping” role, with an international mandate.

The Trump administration is clearly not 100% sure what it wants to do about Ukraine. There were a number of mixed messages over the weekend.

This allows Europe a small window of opportunity to try to persuade the American president, it is an invaluable partner.

He hopes to do so via this Paris meeting, ride the ball on two major questions requested by Donald Trump: that Europe spends and does more for his own defense, and that Europe sends troops to Ukraine after a ceasefire The fever.

The leaders of Europe insist that Kyiv is directly involved in cease-fire talks. They have long maintained the opinion that “there can be no decision concerning Ukraine, without Ukraine”.

But it’s even more than that for Europe.

It is the realization of the cold – very feared, but not entirely unexpected – that the Trump administration does not favor relations with European partners, or their defense.

Europe is based on a security umbrella provided by the United States since the Second World War.

According to the parameters of Russia – the United States talks about Ukraine, and how much Putin feels by them, there is also a European fear that it could end up changing the security architecture of their continent.

Putin historically wants the propagation of NATO to the east. The Russian neighbors – the tiny and former Soviet Baltic States and also Poland – are now particularly exposed.

Not all European countries will be at the top of Monday. Just those who have a military weight: the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and Denmark – which should represent the Baltic and Nordic nations, as well as the President of the Council of The EU and the Secretary General of the Defense Alliance, NATO.

Other countries later have follow -up meetings.

Even during the small Paris rally, it will be difficult, if not impossible, to agree to increase in concrete defense expenses. Poland plans to spend 4.47% of its GDP in defense in 2025. The United Kingdom is struggling and has not yet reached 2.5% of its GDP.

But leaders can commit to coordinating better, spending more inside NATO and supporting most of Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction. The EU should also strengthen its defense efforts.

A large part of the Paris meeting will also focus on the issue of sending troops to Ukraine after a ceasefire.

The idea discussed is not for peacekeeping troops, but rather a “comfort force”, parked behind, rather than on any line of possible ceasefire line.

The objective of a presence of European troops would be three times. To send a message to the Ukrainians: that they are not alone. Another message in the United States, to show that Europe “makes its song” for the defense of its own continent, and the last message to Moscow, to warn that if it breaks the terms of a cease Possible fire, he will not be confronted Kyiv alone.

But it is a controversial concept and may not be popular with voters. In Italy, for example, 50% of people asked not to send more weapons to Ukraine, not to mention sons and daughters, sisters and brothers.

There are so many questions still unanswered:

How many troops each European country should send, for how long and under the command of whom? What would be their mission statement-for example, if Russia had broken the terms of a convenient ceasefire, does that mean that European soldiers would be directly at war with Russia? Would the United States have their back if so?

Europe would like an American security guarantee before deploying soldiers in Ukraine. He can get one.

It’s too much to be decided on Monday. And the leaders, including British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, come to Paris with their own domestic concerns-can they afford additional defense expenses, have the troops to send to Ukraine?

Richard – Now Lord – Dannatt is the former British army chief. He told the BBC that the British army was too exhausted to provide a large proportion of troops for Ukraine. He said that around 100,000 soldiers would probably be necessary in total and that the United Kingdom should provide a considerable number. The British army insists that it has acquired a global reputation for excellence.

But this summit is wider of the brush strokes than the small characters. Conversation can at least start publicly.

Will Donald Trump pay attention?

Difficult to know.

We are talking about sending an envoy to Washington after the Paris meeting to assert Europe. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is close to the Trump administration, for example.

Sir Keir Starmer has a visit planned in Washington in a few days. This could be his chance to act as a bridge between Europe and the United States.

The Paris meeting also offers leaders of the United Kingdom and other European leaders to repair relations after the bitterness of Brexit.

Mark Leonard, head of the European Council on foreign relations, notes that Starmer could “demonstrate that Great Britain is a stakeholder responsible for European security … Something that will be noticed and will result in good will with regard to Negotiations on other questions “.

Questions such as trade relations and the cooperation of the police that the United Kingdom hopes to improve with the EU in the future.

Host Nation France feels confident. President Macron has long recommended that Europe be less dependent on external countries for supply chains, technological capacities and well with regard to defense. He made the headlines a year ago by first giving the idea of ​​troops on the ground in Ukraine.

France is “fiercely proud” that its intelligence and security services are not linked to the United States, unlike the United Kingdom, explains Georgina Wright, deputy director of international studies at the Montaigne Institute. It makes less complicated to untangle, now that Trump is in the White House, demanding that Europe take care of itself.

The United States has sent a document to the European allies including six points and questions, such as which countries would be willing to deploy troops in Ukraine within the framework of a peace regulation, and what governments would be ready to increase sanctions against the Russia, including more strictly apply those existing.

But Julianne Smith, until recently the US NATO ambassador, says that this kind of complicated diplomatic work normally takes weeks of meetings and cannot be organized by fulfilled forms.

She adds that all that the leaders of Europe reach in Paris, if they use it to demand a seat at the negotiation table on Ukraine, their hand is low.

“If Trump flashes and says no, does Europe refuse to help completely? They can’t cut their nose to turn the face badly.”

Essentially, if the United States plans to turn away from Ukraine and Europe more broadly in terms of security, it will have to increase their defense game anyway.

If Donald Trump does not look, Vladimir Putin is certainly.