European leaders have treated with the return of President Trump by trying to cooperate him in Ukraine while pushing to accelerate their own defense spending so that they depend less and more capricious America.
But Friday’s meeting in the oval office, in which Mr. Trump reprimanded President Volodymyr Zelensky in Ukraine, underlined for European leaders that even if they still need to try to keep the United States at the table, they may also need to offer more concrete plans – and quickly.
After the stormy exchange, a visibly annoyed Trump canceled a press conference with the Ukrainian leader and Published on social networks That Mr. Zelensky was “not ready for peace” as long as he has American support.
His anger – and his threat that the United States could stop supporting Ukraine if it did not accept any peace agreement at the United States – was only the last sign that Trump pivoted American foreign policy far from the traditional allies in Europe and Russia.
The gross change in the American strategy has left the leaders of the continent in shock. Many fear that if the war ends with a weak case for Ukraine, that would embrace Russia, which makes it a greater threat to the rest of Europe. And the change of tone makes the realization of greater autonomy more urgent than ever, even if European leaders are faced with the same intimidating challenges as before.
It would take years to build weapons systems and the capacities that Europe should be really independent militarily. And supporting Ukraine while building local defenses could take the type of rapid action and a united political will that the European Union has often struggled to achieve.
“Everything is based on Europe today: the question is how to intensify?” said Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, acting president of the German Fund Marshall. “They have no alternative.”
European leaders had already debated the way they could help guarantee security in Ukraine if a peace agreement was concluded, what conditions they would find acceptable and what they could give in Ukraine in their next aid package.
In fact, senior officials are about to meet this week to discuss the defense, first in London on Sunday during a rally organized by Keir Starmer, the British Prime Minister, then in Brussels on Thursday at a special European Council summit, which brings together the leaders of the EU.
Representatives of the 27 member countries of the Bloc met on Friday afternoon to offer a draft ideas for Reunion in Brussels. The plan included calls to strengthen EU defenses faster than previously expected, and more clearly define any security guarantees for Ukraine, according to an EU official informed of the issue.
And it was before Friday exchange between Mr. Trump and Mr. Zelensky.
The push has stimulated immediate effusion of indignation and public support for Ukraine of many European officials.
“The White House scene was breathtaking,” Germany president Frank-Walter Steinmeier, DPA, said on Saturday. “I would never have thought that we should never defend Ukraine against the United States.”
This has also caused calls for rapid action, some European diplomats and leaders hoping that even countries that have hesitated to increase defense spending and support for Ukraine are now on board with a more ambitious approach.
“A powerful Europe, we need it more than ever,” said President Emmanuel Macron in France on social networks. “The boom is now.”
Kaja Kallas, the first EU diplomat, was even more categorical.
“We are going to intensify our support for Ukraine,” she wrote on social networks on Friday evening. “Today, it has become clear that the free world needs a new leader. It is up to us, Europeans, to take up this challenge. »»
However, for all declarations of bracing, accelerating the transition from Europe to greater autonomy on defense will not be an easy task.
To start, assuming a larger part of the financial burden to help Ukraine is probably expensive. The United States alone has spent around $ 114 billion for military, financial and humanitarian aid for Ukraine in the past three years, according to a frequently used trackerCompared to the $ 132 billion in Europe.
In addition, with regard to European defense more broadly, America provides critical weapons systems and other military equipment which would be almost impossible to replace rapidly.
“We still need the United States,” said Jeromin Zettelmeyer, director of the Brussels based research group.
EU nations have increased their military spending in recent years – spending 30% more last year than in 2021. But some NATO countries are still the target of members of 2% or more of their gross domestic product in defense.
Part of the problem is that spending more in defense generally means spending less for other priorities, such as health care and social services. And given economic challenges and budgetary limitations in Germany, France and small economies like Belgium, finding the political will to quickly strengthen spending has sometimes been a challenge.
“Decisions on massive investments are necessary with regard to our common European defense capacities,” Annalena Baerbock, German Minister for Foreign Affairs, said on Saturday, calling for such action this week.
When it comes to finding more money to support Ukraine, Europeans do not speak with one voice.
European officials had already discussed a future assistance package for Ukraine, which could total tens of billions of euros. Friday evening, the countries that pressure for more ambitious sums hoped that Mr. Trump’s tone at Zelensky’s meeting would help encourage European latecomers to open their portfolios, according to a familiar diplomat with discussions.
But Hungary should oppose the new aid package for Ukraine, which could force the EU to bring together the contributions of the Member States, rather than pass a package at the block, because the latter would need unanimity.
In a clear sign of disunity, Viktor Orban, the Hungarian Prime Minister, has moved away from many other European leaders, thanking Trump for his exchange with Mr. Zelensky. He wrote on social networks That the American leader “was courageously for peace” even if “it was difficult for a lot to digest”.
European officials also examined if, when and how to put European peacekeeping forces on the ground in Ukraine if an agreement is concluded to stop the war. Great Britain expressed its desire to send troops to Ukraine, as did France. Discussions on this subject are expected to continue this week.
But in the light of Friday’s exchange, some say that the moment of slow deliberation can be finished. While the officials had just started talking about security guarantees for Ukraine, they may need to start thinking quickly about how to implement them, Hoop Scheffer told the German Fund Marshall.
“This is the moment when Europe intensifies very, very seriously,” she said.
She added that the Oval Blowup stressed that European officials will have to present their best mediators to try to keep the United States on board, as much as possible.
Giorgia Meloni, the Italian Prime Minister, is considered one of Mr. Trump’s closest leaders in Europe. Friday evening, she declared in a statement that she would try to put pressure for a meeting among all the allies.
“It is necessary to have an immediate summit between the United States, European states and allies to speak frankly about how we intend to take up the great challenges of today,” she said. “Starting with Ukraine.”
And earlier last week, Mr. Starmer and Mr. Macron went to Washington to meet Trump, rallies that seemed to go considerably better than Reunion with Mr. Zelensky – even if they failed to achieve major goals such as obtaining an American security “backstop” for peacekeeping troops.
In fact, Mr. Starmer’s plans to debriefing European leaders during his trip during the Sunday summit highlighted a side effect of change in the tone of America: the countries of the European Union and Great Britain are getting closer when they establish defense plans.
This puts Mr. Starmer in a position to play more leadership role in relations with the United States, while Germany is working to set up a new government and the French are fighting against domestic political challenges.
Given the need for support in the United States, European leaders are likely to develop strategies on how to keep Mr. Trump hired while they are talking this week. Already, Mr. Zelensky published messages Recognizing for American support on social networks.
Before his trip to London, Donald Tusk, the Polish Prime Minister, said on Sunday, said those responsible for the need to have “the closest alliance with the United States”.
But as Europe recognizes more and more that the United States is “super unreliable”, as Mr. Zettelmeyer said in Bruegel, the time to simply hope for the continuity of relations can be passed.
“We have had several of these shocking moments-whenever a shocking moment, there are a lot of brings in hand,” he said. “The really interesting question is: will this time be different?”
Emma Bubola Contributed reports.
