US President Donald Trump is looming in the last weeks of Australia’s general electoral campaign, spelling problems for conservative opposition Peter Dutton, as is a new poll shows the Australian faith in the United States at his lowest level.
Trump’s windy style and often disruptive policies, including “reciprocal” prices against longtime allies and attacks on American government agencies, have started to alarm Australian voters, analysts and academics.
The dynamics are similar but not quite the same as in Canada, where the fortune of the Liberal Party, according to a series of surveys, was radically revived by a change of leadership from Justin Trudeau to Mark Carney before the vote of April 28.
Australian Prime Minister’s Labor Party Anthony Albanese increased in various polls compared to the conservative coalition of Dutton, with only three and a half weeks until the May 3 election.
“Trump has become the third candidate for this electoral campaign,” said Mark Kenny, a professor specializing in politics at the Australian National University of Canberra.
“He made it very difficult for Peter Dutton to get his message across and made it difficult for Dutton to be considered a figure entirely independent of this electoral campaign.”
A survey published Wednesday by the Lowy Institute, a research foundation, revealed that only 36% of Australians have expressed any level of confidence in the United States to act responsible, down 20 points since the last survey in June 2024 and the lowest since the launch of the annual survey two decades ago.
The survey was carried out in March, before Trump announced his rang of prices, including 10% coverage on all Australian imports.
“Given the upsetting approach to President Donald Trump to his second term, it is not surprising that Australians are less confident towards the United States,” said Ryan Neelam, director of public opinion and foreign policy at the Lowy Institute.
The outgoing president tries to link Dutton to Trump, Musk
Dutton, from the Liberal Party, campaigned on several policies considered to be emulatoring Trump and his group of the Ministry of Government (DOGE), created by Elon Musk. In January, Dutton appointed Jacinta Nampijinpa Price as Minister of Government’s effectiveness, a position inspired by the role of Musk, analysts said.
“With the Australians in fed up with unnecessary expenses that are out of control … Jacinta will examine closely how we can achieve more effective use of taxpayers’ money,” said Dutton at the time.
The Labor Party has capitalized on the change of public feeling, the treasurer Jim Chalmers making the head of the opposition on several occasions as “Doge-Y Dutton”.
Albanese said on Tuesday that Dutton would adopt “Doge style cups” in the public sector if he was elected.
“”[Australians] Do not enjoy the turmoil and the capricitus of the White House, and the early enthusiasm of Dutton as well as other conservatives to celebrate Trump’s victory were almost mentioned in his saddle bags throughout this campaign, “said Kenny of the Australian National University.
“This weight has become heavier because Trump has become less and less popular.”
Considerable military links and information
The combative position of the new American administration is also a campaign subject to military cooperation between the two countries.
Australia has undertaken to buy three nuclear propulsion virginia submarines of the United States in the 2030s as part of the Trilateral Security Partnership of Aukus which also includes the United Kingdom, in an arrangement which contains various plans and possibilities which extend over decades. The three countries are also, with Canada and New Zealand, part of the five-eyes sharing alliance.
The Australian Submarine Agency said that the acquisition of nuclear submarines was a key element in the defense strategy of Australia’s defense, and “will be equipped for intelligence, surveillance, underwater war and strike missions”.
While Akus has a strong support from the main Australian parties, disappointment was expressed that defense ties did not win the exemptions in Australia of Trump prices put the program under an unprecedented public examination.
Independent legislators are skeptical about Trump and have called for an examination of the underwater agreement, although the impact of the self-employed can be limited unless a suspended parliament results from the May 3 vote.
Former Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who won the Aukus Treaty in 2021, said in an interview with Reuters that the threat posed by China and the deterrence of Australia operating nuclear submarines in the Southern China Sea and the Indian Ocean led the agreement.
“China is the threat – of course they are – and that’s what should be dissuaded,” said Morrison.
“The idea that more American and more British boats were in Australia and around Australia, and on the station in Australia, in the theater, we have always known that it would bring the means of deterrence,” he added.
The Australia Plan of Virginia Submarines was added to Aukus by work in 2023.
Albanian, elected in 2022, was less willing to publicly criticize China, even if the air forces and the Australia navy pursue the patrols of the freedom of navigation at the Southern China Sea. This has become a point of political attack in the electoral campaign for Dutton, which was Minister of Defense in the government of Morrison.
