The main telecommunications operators of India – JIO, Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea (VI) reilrance – should announce another series of pricing increases in November -December 2025, as part of a broader “tariff repair” strategy aimed at increasing income and ARPU (average income by user), said Bernstein Global Bernstein in a note recent.
The brokerage projects arpu levels to go to Rs 300 by FY27, driven by continuous rate increases, upgrades of smartphones and data monetization, the economic time reported. The last increase – implemented in July 2024 – increased the prices by 20 to 25%, and its full impact always takes place in the profits of operators.
Rahul Mathur, pre-series investor in DEVC_India, in an article on X, noted in the past five years, the cost of mobile data in India has regularly climbed and telecommunications finances make this trend clear. The key indicator? ARPU (Revenue average by user) – A metric that shows how a telecommunications company wins by customer – has increased considerably in all areas.
For example, Jio’s ARPU has almost doubled, increasing between 50% and 96% since 2019. This means that a typical JIO user pays almost twice as much for mobile services as five years ago. Although this jump is delivered with improvements in quality, speed and service coverage, it also marks a passage from the era of ultra-cohered data which once led India’s digital boom.
All the main players – JIO, Airtel and VI – have seen the growth of ARPU motivated by price hikes, an adoption of premium plan and increased data consumption. As the networks deploy 5G and push for profitability, this upward trend should continue.
“The data in India is inexpensive. But it slows down more-telecommunications finances share this exact story: around 50% to 96% in ARPU in the past 5 years, that is to say for a typical JIO customer, they pay almost X2 what they did 5 years ago (of course, better service, etc.)”, said Mathur.
Q3 ARPU
During the third quarter of fiscal year 25, JIO reliance, User’s average income (ARPU), exceeded the RS 200 bar, reaching Rs 203.3. This marks significant growth for the telecommunications operator, especially given that the ARPU oscillated around Rs 180 before the implementation of tariff hikes.
Bharti Airtel made an impressive RS 245 ARPU during the third FY25, which makes it the highest among all Indian telecommunications operators by substantial margin. Compared, Airtel’s ARPU was Rs 208 in the same quarter last year.
Vodafone Idea reported an arpu of Rs 173 in Q3 Fy25, against Rs 166 in the previous quarter. The company has shown regular growth of the ARPU since pricing adjustments.
Forecast by Bernstein
Bernstein plans to growth for the income of mid-height adolescents for Airtel and Jio from 2025 to 2027, with additions of subscribers and the growth of the ARPU as key engines. Airtel should also considerably improve its finances, with an increase in available cash flows and a net debt to the EBITDA at ~ 0.9x per FY27. His rock could reach ~ 18%.
Meanwhile, VI received relief after the government agreed to convert 36,950 crosses its equity spectrum contributions, which increased its participation to 49%. This decision, according to analysts, highlights the government’s commitment to maintain a three -playing market, which augurs well for price discipline and the stability of future prices.
Bernstein concludes that Airtel is best positioned in the telecommunications sector with fundamental balances of the balance sheet, the increase in the ARPU and the improvement of the effectiveness of capital – via Asian and Asian peers in 2024 so far.
