Until now, the fighting had mainly involved Iran and Israel, which launched air strikes on the Islamic Republic last week. President Donald Trump’s decision to send bombers and cruise missiles to Iran considerably increases the conflict and passes the United States to offensive operations, not just a defensive posture to protect Israel and American troops.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on social networks that Iran “reserves all the options” to defend itself.
While Trump threatened more attacks unless Iran is looking for peace, Karim Sadjadpour, a principal researcher in the Endowment for International Peace and an expert in Iran, said it is unlikely that the country’s management will take this path. But his answer could also prove to be catastrophic.
“Many Iran’s reprisal options are the strategic equivalent of suicide bombing,” he said in a Series of messages on X. “They can hit us with embassies and bases, attack oil installations in the Persian Gulf, exploit the Strait of Hormuz or rain missiles in Israel – but the regime may not survive the flame return.”
The energy markets are about to undergo a major shock while investors digest the implications of the American bombardment of Iran, a higher oil exporter.
Brut prices had already increased in the immediate consequences of Israel’s air strikes, and could climb even more, according to Iran’s reaction.
In a note last week, George Saravelos, FX Research Head at Deutsche Bank, estimated that the worst case of a complete disruption of Iranian oil supplies and a closure of the Hormuz Strait could send oil prices greater than $ 120 per barrel.
This is because the Hormuz Strait is a critical point In the world’s energy trade, such as the equivalent of 21% of the global consumption of oil fluids, or about 21 million barrels per day, crosses the narrow navigable way.
Iran’s ability to use proxies and allies in the region to retaliate in its name has also been seriously weakened, because the previous Israeli attacks Ontrodis Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas.
Meanwhile, Sadjadpour noted that the Iranian revolutionary guards are a substantial force of 190,000 soldiers, but not monolithic.
“Do they continue to rely on Khamenei, 86, as commander-in-chief, although his regional and nuclear ambitions have now ended with colossal insufficiency?” He asked.
Other analysts have also warned of Iran’s potential to retaliate by taking Americans as hostages or by launching cyber attacks. And the Houthi rebels allied by Iran in Yemen said before Saturday that any American attack on Iran would trigger attacks on American ships in the region.
But the retirement general of the Wesley Clark army, who previously was the supreme commander ally in Europe, told CNN that he did not think that Iran would have recourse to a maximum response like blocking the Hormuz Strait.
Instead, he can launch missiles in American bases in the region or directly pro-Téhran militias in Iraq to attack American forces.
“I don’t see a major answer,” he predicted. “This Iranian diet calculates. It is very prudent to understand where he wants to go. ”
For the moment, it is not yet clear that American attacks against Iran will prove to be decisive. Sadjadpour noted that the supreme leader Ali Khamenei believes that the weakness of the weakness of pressure projects invites more pressure.
But he also said that Khamenei was not a “reckless player”, creating tensions between his survival instincts and his provocative instincts.
“This is an unprecedented moment in Iranian history,” added Sadjadpour. “He could anchor the diet – or speed up his disappearance. It could prevent a nuclear Iran – or accelerate one. Military attacks / humiliations both strengthened dictatorships (Iran 1980) and weakening them (Argentina, Milosevic). ”
