Summary
The FED preferred inflation indicator, the PCE price index, will be published by the BEA this morning. The index differs from the best -known consumer price index because its composition is more frequently changed and it is faster to reflect price fluctuations in real time. In the January report, the inflation of the PCE increased by 2.5% from one year to the next. The latest IPC report (February) had an increase in inflation by 2.8%. Core PCE, which suppresses the volatile prices of food and energy, increased at a rate of 2.6% in the last month. Our PCE forecasts require regular readings for recovery for February: 2.4% for the title number and for 2.6% for basic reading, because persistent inflation in certain sticky prices remains a challenge. Overall, inflation in this cycle culminated in the summer of 2022 and has been on a fairly coherent decline since then. We follow 20 inflation measures on a monthly basis. On average, they indicate that prices are increasing at a rate of 3.15% from one year to another, essentially stable with a month ago. The figures are volatile and deformed by oscillations in the price inflation ratio of the volatile producer. By focusing on basic inflation – which we obtain by doing the basic CPI average, at the price of the market -based food & energy, the interest rate for the interest panel on the profitability threshold of inflation on 10 years and the price index PCE – our reading is 2.60%, less than five poi poi poere
