The panelists “The Claman Countdown” Jason Katz and Phil Camporeale analyze the economic movements of President Donald Trump.
President Donald Trump’s second presidential term has reached his post-iraigation milestone for 100 days, and the performance of the stock market ranks as the second expectation in the past 80 years.
The S&P 500 index decreased by 7.9% of the inauguration day on April 25, the end of the last full week before the 100 -day mark, according to a CFRA analysis. In comparison, during Trump’s first term in 2016, the S&P 500 increased by 5% in its first 100 days in power.
This drop is the second drop in greater decrease in the first 100 days of a presidential mandate, dragging only the stock slide observed at the start of President Richard Nixon’s second term in 1972, when the S&P 500 was down 9.9%.
Since 1944, seven presidential conditions have started with the S&P 500 down in the first 100 days, while 14 presidential conditions have seen increases during these periods. Trump’s second term is the first presidential term to see the market decrease in the first 100 days since the second term of President George W. Bush in 2004, when the S&P 500 fell 1.6%.
The first 100 days of function of President Trump: How is inflation?
The performance of the S&P 500 in the first 100 days of Trump’s second term is the second worst among the administrations since the Second World War. (Francis Chung / Politico / Bloomberg via Getty Images)
The presidential administration under which the S&P 500 did the best was in 1944, when Franklin D. Roosevelt, who died on April 12 of the same year, and his successor, Harry Truman, were in office. The S&P 500 increased by 10.4% during this 100 -day period.
Other notable gains during the first 100 days of a presidential term took place under John F. Kennedy (+ 8.9%), Joe Biden (+ 8.5%) and Barack Obama (+ 8.4%).
The only republican president since the Second World War to see a positive performance in the S&P 500 in their two presidential terms was Ronald Reagan, who saw gains of 0.9% and 5% in the first 100 days of his first and second terms, respectively.
Consumer confidence plunged to a hollow of 5 years in April
Trump announced a “reciprocal” pricing policy based on bilateral trade deficits as part of his announcement of “Liberation Day” in the Garden Rose of the White House. (SOMODEVILLA / GETTY Images)
The CFRA report noted that “investors are more likely concerned about the next 100 days and if the results for the first or the next 100 days were predictive of annual yields”.
“Once again since the Second World War, the S&P 500 increased an average of 3.2% over the next 100 days and was 65% higher of the time,” wrote the AFRA investment strategist, Sam Stovall. He noted that “a yield above the average during the first 100 days led to an average year to year of year 21.1%”, but that a “first days lower than the average experienced an annual decrease of 5.5%”.
Over the next 100 days, a decrease greater than the average caused a complete gain of 22%, while a yield below the average experienced an average decrease of 3.7%, he added.
Price price induced by prices, trade concerns highlighted in the beige book of the Fed
Trump administration is negotiating commercial agreements with several business partners. (Win McNamee / Getty images)
Financial markets have experienced high volatility levels in the midst of Trump’s efforts to reset global trade flows on more favorable terms for the United States by imposing radical prices on trading partners.
The uncertainty about the duration of the prices and the additional climbing potential, as well as the possibility of disruption, causing a recession, continued to weigh on the markets while the administration begins negotiations with other countries.
In his speech to a joint congress session in early March, Trump said that the disruption caused by his prices was worth it to the US long -term economy.
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“The prices consist in making America rich and making America again large. And that happens, and that will happen fairly quickly,” said Trump. “There will be a little disruption, but we agree with that. It will not be much.”
