There is growing economic discomfort in Wall Street in response to the recent implementation of Donald Trump of widespread prices, which prompted banks to issue warnings of a possible recession. According to a Bloomberg report, the chief economist of JPMorgan, Bruce Kasman, estimated a probability of 60% of a global recession in 2025, a significant increase compared to previous forecasts of 40%.
Kasman highlighted the potential amplification of tariff effects through reprisal measures, a decrease in American commercial feeling and disturbances in the supply chain, as indicated in its publication entitled “There will be blood”.
Goldman Sachs has also expressed similar apprehensions, increasing its probability of recession by 20% to 35% over the next year. In addition, the company has revised its projection of GDP from 2025 to growth of 1% and provides for an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.5%. “Climbing in our likelihood of recession reflects a marked decline in consumer and businesses in economic prospects in last month,” said Goldman’s report.
