The newly elected Prime Minister of Canada will soon meet US President Donald Trump. Achieve an agreement with him? This is another matter.
Trump said on Wednesday that Carney would visit the White House in less than a week and that the Prime Minister wanted to conclude an agreement.
But Carney has three major steps to go to arrive in full Commerce and security pact He is looking. These are the three PS: Personal, Process and Politics.
Look at this meeting – expected in the “near future” according to the Prime Minister’s office (PMO) – for the first clues on how these negotiations could work. What people will direct it? What process will they follow? And what policies are on the table?
The ultimate goal, obviously, is a more functional relationship with the United States, including a softening of the 25% of Trump on steel, aluminum and certain other products.
An only well -placed analyst says it is Carney’s idea to pack the discussion rate with the wider safety conversation.
President Donald Trump, speaking on Wednesday at a meeting on Wednesday, comments on the Canadian elections and the opinions of the main party leaders on him – and said that he expected Prime Minister Mark Carney to come to the White House “in the next week, or less”.
Brian Clow managed American relations in Justin Trudeau’s PMO and said the office had dealt with a pricing threat after the other.
Carney “has the possibility of resetting and restarting the relationship here,” said Clow, which is not involved in the current government, and which spoke as an observer.
“I choose to be optimistic at this stage that we will get real results.”
But first, there is step 1, explains Chow: assembling a team and deciding on the key people from Canada-as who will occupy the roles of the relevant firm, who will lead the process and will there be a main negotiator appointed?
A negotiation process? Or two?
Step 2 implies the process. In what mechanism will it take place? There is a slow: the planned examination of the Canada-US-Mexico (CUSMA) agreement which should start next year.
But this process would take months just to start. By lawThe United States must carry out 270 days of consultation with the general public and the congress before starting interviews with Canada and Mexico.
Another option is an informal arrangement – a handshake.
A third possibility is a combination of the two – initial talks, followed by the formal process of months later.
A senior Canadian official says it will likely involve two separate sets of talks, but that the specific process has not yet been nailed.
Some experts in trade policy in Washington are normally happy to talk about the process admitted to having been confronted with it when contacted by CBC News.
Trump’s trade policy was, to say it slightly, a more touch erratic that Washington is accustomed To get around normal procedures.
A well -known Canadian predicts that commercial and security talks will not occur by the slower and more formal route.
“Not through CUSMA,” said Erin O’Toole, the former federal conservative leader and a new scholarship holder in a Washington -based reflection group, the Hudson Institute.
He says that Trump just has too many talks already planned on prices, with too many countries, to consider discussions with Canada which takes place in the regular and more deliberative process.
This brings us to the substance: what problems will be on the table?
It is obvious what will be the absolute priority of Canada – the end of the prices. Ideally, this would include new American laws limiting the way they are used, but it is long -term in the best circumstances and would require congress, which means not in a rapid agreement with the president.
The United States, on the other hand, is quite transparent on a number of its requests. He even publishes a annual list. His latest calls for changes to the Canada dairy system and the digital services tax.
Trump has also complained about the military regulations for Canada’s spending and banks. Perhaps above all, his team wants fewer foreign pieces, in general, and in particular fewer Chinese pieces, in the car supply chains.
Trump’s first mandate commercial tsar mentioned this During a recent forum in Ottawa. Cars are “the greatest,” said Robert Lighthizer. “I hope we tighten it even more.”
The way in which O’tOole sees it, Canada could link all this conversation together under a large whole: rebuild the Arsenal of democracy.
The United States fears that ability to manufacture Things have become a threat to national security, in everything, ships, industrial parties, with arms built with critical minerals.
O’Toole envisages a large pact in which Canada aligns with the American objectives on cars, guarantees some access to critical minerals, including uranium, increases military cooperation in the Arctic, and offers what looks like a strong victory for Trump – a guaranteed offer of a certain volume of oil, at a delivery price, for example, 20 years.
Spoiler alert: Canada already sells this oil in the United States at a reduced price. But, appear O’Toole, it would look great in a press release.
“To leave [Trump] Let’s say he wins, “O’Toole said.” Said: “This agreement is worth $ 40 billion over 20 years”. In return, Canada wins because we align our integrated defense and … manufacturing.
All of this is based on Trump’s prices that release the prices, says O’Toole. Trump may not delete them all, he says, but even remove some, or reduce them to a more manageable rate, would help.
And that would set the tone for a more productive CUSMA process next year, he adds.
The greatest challenge of these conferences is perhaps to rebuild confidence.
Even some American legislators have asked why other countries would take the trouble to conclude an agreement with the United States, knowing that the president could later impose prices on a whim.
After all, Canada had already done much of what the United States has requested. He revised the old Nara. Then he slapped pricerestrictions and sanctions on various Chinese products and investment in Canada.
Clow remembers that during Trudeau’s phone call with Trump, after Trump was re -elected, Trudeau mentioned the Canada prices had imposed on China.
“The president seemed to be satisfied with this,” recalls Clow.
And then, a few days later, he threatened prices with everything from Canada and Mexico. Shortly after, Trudeau visited Trump in Mar-A-Lago. Trump praised this meeting as “very productive“But immediately started talking about the annex to Canada. Finally, he imposed the prices, but released a lot.
So, will these prices continue to persist? Or is there a chance that Trump can suspend some to build good will during negotiations?
Obviously, Canada will target the first, says Clow. Carney’s team will clearly argue for rapid withdrawal as part of a relational reset.
“But I would not be optimistic that it will happen as soon as you leave the door,” said Clow. “Then the objective would be to withdraw them from the point of any agreement.”
And that, according to him, could take some time.
