In Syria, optimism abounds. The unexpected decision of US President Donald Trump to raise sanctions against the country, announced in Riyad on Tuesday, is a relief for the Syrians. They hope that this decision will reintegrate Syria into the world economy and will bring essential investments in a country trying to recover more than 50 years of rule of the dynastic family, as well as a war of almost 14 years.
The impact of Trump’s declaration, which, according to him, would give Syria a “chance of magnitude” after the reversal of Bashar al-Assad, had an almost immediate effect, because the Syrian book has strengthened against the US dollar of around 25%, in a boost to a country suffering from economic difficulties.
“The lifting of sanctions against Syria represents a fundamental turning point,” Ibrahim Nafi Qushji, economist and banking expert, told Al Jazeera. “The Syrian economy will go from interaction with development economies to integration into more developed economies, which potentially rehaulted trade and investment relations considerably.”
Complex sanctions
Although the announcement will likely lead to imminent progress, there are still a few stumbling blocks to eliminate sanctions, analysts and experts in Al Jazeera told.
The American sanctions against Syria date back to 1979, when the country was under the iron hold of President Hafez al -Assad – Bashar’s father – and appointed a “state godfather of terrorism”. In the years that followed, additional sanctions have been placed on the State and the individuals associated both with the regime and the opposition, including the current president Ahmed Al-Sharaa-following his former association with Al-Qaeda.
“There is an entire building of a complex range of sanctions,” said Al Jazeera Vittorio Marescapiola, principal analyst of sanctions for Karam Shaar Advisory Limited, a consulting company, focusing on the political economy of the Middle East.
Analysts said Trump could remove certain sanctions by the decree, while certain “foreign terrorist organizations” (FTO) could be abolished by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. But other sanctions may be more complicated to finish.
According to Maresca di Serracapriola, there is also a series of export controls, decrees that target the banking sector and acts that have been adopted by the US Congress.
“It’s a huge moment for the country,” said Maresca di Serracapriola. “Of course, sanctions are very technical and complicated tools, so it is always difficult to know how the American government will be able to implement what it has promised.”
There are also questions about the calendar. The economic situation of many Syrians is disastrous, with 90% of the population living in poverty and about 25% unemployed, according to the United Nations. The new Syrian authority undergoes extreme economic pressure, while sometimes difficulty in exercising its authority and ensuring security throughout the country.
Trump’s decision will be a stay welcome, but the Syrians may have to wait for the sanctions to take effect. Analysts said the changes would gradually come and could take up to a year before “tangible results” were observed.
The sanctions are distributed alone will not be sufficient either. Analysts noted that Syria still needs banking reforms to comply and take off international surveillance lists. Incitations of the United States and other international actors will also be required to establish confidence among private investors who seek to invest in the future of Syria.
“The realization of long -term growth requires the implementation of internal economic reforms, in particular the improvement of the commercial environment, the improvement of financial transparency and the development of productive sectors to ensure that the Syrian economy effectively benefits from global opportunities,” said Queshji. “The lifting of economic sanctions against Syria is a first step towards the restructuring of the economy, but it requires reform policies focused on sustainable development and global economic integration to ensure real and productive recovery.”
Trump meeting al-sharaa
For months, everyone from the new management of Syria, analysts and international actors said that there was an urgent need to relieve sanctions. But the United States has already adopted an inflexible position against the Al-Sharaa government, due to links perceived with violence and armed groups.
Regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkiye have however established solid relations with the new government in Damascus. Before Trump’s statement on Tuesday, several analysts told Al Jazeera that they didn’t expect the relief of Syria sanctions to be at the top of the agenda in the United States or the Gulf states that Trump visited during his three-country tour.
The United States has adopted a prudent, and sometimes contradictory approach to the new authority of Syria since the fall of the Assad regime on December 8.
On March 9, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio sentenced the new government of Syria not to prevent sectarian violence and massacres in the country’s coastal region. But then, three days later, Rubio praised the agreement between the Syrian democratic forces led by the Kurds (SDF) and the Syrian central government in Damascus which would ostensibly see the SDF integrate into public institutions.
Previously, the United States provided Syria with a list of requests which included the destruction of remaining chemical weapons, cooperation on “counter-terrorism” and the suppression of foreign fighters of high-level roles in the new government or the army. There have also been suggestions that Syria could add an agreement from the Trump Tower to Damascus and Trump wanted links between Syria and Israel above all relief of sanctions.
But Tuesday evening, everything had changed. Trump announced that he would remove sanctions against Syria without conditions.
“The key emphasis here is that it is a Saudi agreement rather than something between the United States and Syria,” said Rob Geist Pinfold, conference in defense studies at King’s College in London.
Then, Wednesday morning, Trump and Al-Sharaa met for a little more than half an hour in the presence of the crown prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed Bin Salman and with the president of Turkiye Recep Tayyip Erdogan in phonant. Reunion seemed to please Trump.
Addressing journalists on Air Force One on his way to Doha, Trump called Al-Sharaa “young and attractive.
After the talks, the White House published a list of questions Trump discussed with Al-Sharaa. They included some of the United States previous requests in Syria, such as dealing with foreign fighters and “lubricious” cooperation. But Trump also mentioned Syria recognizing Israel, as well as the management of ISIL detention centers in northern Syria.
“It does not seem to be prerequisites, but they could slow down lifting [of sanctions]”Said a senior program of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in Al Jazeera.
