How Trump’s trade policy is putting pressure on U.S. farmers

Caleb Ragland, a soy farmer in Magnolia, Ky., Voted for President Donald Trump in 2016, 2020 and 2024. Now, however, he must sail in a field of pricing mines at a time when the sector is already faced with the opposite winds.

Ragland works with his wife and three sons and has deep roots in the community. His family has grown on earth for more than two centuries. But in recent years, he has dropped as a two -digit percentage of crop prices while production costs are increasing. The soy -term contracts have dropped by more than 40% in the past three years with cornstation contracts.

While pressures rise in industry following prices imposed by the second Trump Administration – as well as levies of reprisals from other countries – he is concerned about the longevity of his business.

“My sons could be the 10th generation if they are able to cultivate,” said Ragland, who is also president of the American Soybean Association, in CNBC. “And when you have policies that are completely out of our control – that they handle our prices by 20%, 30% and, rejecting, our costs increase – we will not be able to stay in business.”

This is not the first time that farmers have been due to new prices. Back in Trump’s first mandate, the trade war with China in 2018 – an era when Ragland said that the agricultural economy was “in a much better place than it is at the moment” – cost the American agriculture industry more than $ 27 billionAnd soybean represented practically 71% of the annualized losses.

This trade war caused sustainable damage. To date, the United States has not yet fully recovered its loss of a soy-to-export market to China, the world Number one buyer of the goodsAccording to ASA.

“Prices break confidence,” said Ragland. “It is much more difficult to find new customers than to keep those you already have.”

The White House last week imposed a 25% Prices on goods from Canada and Mexico as well as 10% additional rights on Chinese imports.

While Trump quickly reversed the course by granting a price delay of one month for car manufacturers on Wednesday, then stopping prices a day later for certain Canadian and Mexican products until April 2, he declared in an interview on Sunday on Fox News that the prices “could go up” over time.

The prices on China were not included in these exemptions. China retaliated with samples, which mainly target American agricultural goods. More specifically, American soybeans are now subject to an additional 10%rate, while corn is affected with an additional 15%load.

“We are already to the point that we are not profitable,” said Ragland. “Why do he devil are trying to add the insult to injuries in the AG sector, essentially adding a tax?”

Ragland stressed that he “appreciates the president’s ability to negotiate” and wants Trump to succeed in the good of the country. However, he stressed that those in industry, especially soy producers, have no elasticity in our ability to resist a trade war that removes our results “.

“People are thwarted,” said Ragland about the feeling of other farmers, stressing that they all need help through transactions that reduce trade obstacles and a new full five -year agricultural bill – legislation that offers producers of key programs for supporting basic products, among others. “You are talking about people’s livelihoods,” he said.

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said last week that Trump administration would have weighed exemptions from certain agricultural products from prices in Canada and Mexico. Trump’s adjusted measures on Thursday included a Reduction of the 10% price on the potashwhich is used for fertilizers.

More than 80% of the potash needs of American farmers are provided by Canada, said Ken Seitz de Nutrian – A Canada -based harvesting service provider – at the BMO Global Metals, Mining & Critical Minerals conference last month.

“While we are examining the implications of tariffs for Nutrien, of course, the biggest discussion concerns the potash, and it is because on a market which represents a little of 10 to 11 million tonnes during a given year, we provide around 40% of this market ourselves,” said the Director General of the Company at the conference. “We believe that the cost of prices will be transmitted to the American farmer.”

Even in breaking the implementation of Trump’s prices, American farmers sounded the alarm. Despite the last Purdue University / CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Reading showing that farmers’ feeling overall improved in February, 44% of survey respondents revealed this month that trade policy would be the most important for their farms in the next five years.

“Usually, when you ask a police issue, by far the most important police is harvest insurance,” said Michael Langemeier, agricultural economist at Purdue University. “Recolte insurance is up there with the apple pie and baseball. It is a very popular program because it offers a very effective safety net.”

“The fact that the harbor insurance was a second distant from the commercial police said a lot,” he also said.

The February survey also showed that almost 50% of farmers said they thought that a trade war leading to a significant decrease in American agricultural exports is “likely” or “very likely”. Langemeier said that between mid-February and the beginning of March, there was a 33% drop per acre of the net return for soy and corn related to prices. It is in addition to the fact that 2025 “is not found to be an extremely profitable year before that,” he revealed.

The economist thinks that there can be a little downward adjustment of the overall feeling of short -term farmers. However, a constructive consequence of the prices could be that they accelerate the signing of a new agricultural bill, he said.

“Well, how in the world can you find the amounts of commercial payments if you do not even know what will be the amounts of the agricultural bill,” said Langemeier. He expects the new signature of the agricultural bill will take place at some point this year.

Looking at the next spring season, Bank of America’s analyst Steve Byrne wrote in a note of February 25 that prices could lead to “more conservative purchases of culture inputs”. This would mean a lower risk of fertilizer purchases, which could affect not only Nutrian, but others like mosaic and Cf Industriesnoted the analyst.

Actions of these companies, as well as other actions related to agriculture such as AGCO And DeerAll sold on March 3 and 4 on the heels of Trump’s pricing announcement.

“I think we have seen the Stock AG is simply selling due to general concerns that the farmer will not be as profitable this year,” said Seth Goldstein de Morningstar in an interview with CNBC.

In the past month, Mosaic slipped by almost 8%, while CF Industries fell by almost 10%. Nutrian has also lost more than 1%. Agco and Deere resisted this time, winning 1.7% and 0.3% respectively.

With regard to the way this trade war will affect American farmers in the long term, Goldstein does not see this sense of impact. It provides that world trade flows will move and be annulled over the next two to three years.

“Although there can be a short -term impact this year of soybeans sitting in warehouses without really available buyers, I think that ultimately, we would see other countries, then start buying more American soy,” said the Stratege of Actions. “Maybe China buys more soy from Brazil, but perhaps a place like Europe, so buys more soy from the United States, and we get … not much difference.”

In the current state of things, Brazil should be the largest soy producer in the world before the United States for the 2024/2025 marketing year, representing 40% of world production during the period, according to the Department of Agriculture. For corn, on the other hand, the United States should be in the first row, by composing 31% of global production During the year of marketing.

Others at Wall Street, however, think that the prices will be more substantial on commercial dynamics.

Kristen Owen, an analyst in Oppenheimer, predicts that the functions will probably solidify Brazil becoming the world’s main producer for corn and soybeans, while the United States will become a kind of incremental supplier in the world.

“Brazil has specifically more capacity to increase their area, more capacity to increase their share of world cereal trade,” she told CNBC. “The prices and some of the other decisions that the administration only accelerates part of this.”